506
FXUS06 KWBC 152001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN FEBRUARY 15 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING
REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES AN
AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN, FEATURING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA; A DEEP
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC,
WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 210 METERS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST,
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND TROUGHING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND RETROGRADED THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE EAST COAST. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH FORECASTED HEIGHT
DEPARTURES NEAR ZERO. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT BASIN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH LIES AHEAD (EAST) OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINING AREAS (CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS) WHERE
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ARE RELATED TO A
FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ALONG MOST OF THE EAST
COAST, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR
COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS, AND SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS 90 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ONLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS (ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES EXCEED 60 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION AND IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD BRING ONE OR
MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS A FORCING MECHANISM,
BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONSISTENT WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. OVER
ALASKA, NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW FAVORS A TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS
CLOSER TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER. PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - MAR 01, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
MUCH OF ALASKA DURING TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 300 METERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. AN
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS FAVORED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES BUT IS MUCH WEAKER
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH ANOMALOUS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS AND AN EXTENSION OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS EXCLUDING THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC. A MAXIMUM OF
70-80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMICAL
AND STATISTICAL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS
IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS GENERALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY DRIER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, BUT REFORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
TOOLS, HAVE OPTED TO FAVOR NEAR NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST. IN ALASKA, AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE BERING SEA, THE WESTERLY EXPANSION OF NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA FLOW
AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE. FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090206 - 20210130 - 20060126 - 20180301 - 20090214
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210201 - 20090206 - 20210127 - 20090214 - 20060126
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - MAR 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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