537
FXUS01 KWBC 160713
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 16 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY...
..HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE,
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY INCREASE
CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS. THEREFORE,
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK REMAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE OLYMPICS, CASCADES, AND THE SIERRA, AND WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, AS MULTIPLE STORM
SYSTEMS BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START AS RAIN BUT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE INTO SNOW OVER
NORTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX BY WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH
15-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL U.S. CAN SEE
HIGHS WITHIN THE 70S AND 90S, WHILE EASTERN U.S. WILL GENERALLY
50S TO 60S. OTHERWISE, MOST OF WESTERN U.S. WILL TREND COOLER WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO 50S.
OUDIT
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