120
FXUS02 KWBC 160756
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 19 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 23 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EMERGES OVER
THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. OUT
WEST, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RENEWED PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
THIS COULD BE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. ELSEWHERE, ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD ABATE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE NORTHEAST,
AND COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON THURSDAY, WITH A
GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKING WELL AS A STARTING POINT
FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THE GREATEST MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
ACROSS NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON LOW CENTER PLACEMENTS. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH TIMING OF
COLD FRONT PROGRESSION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE GFS STRONGEST WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT 50% BY NEXT MONDAY.
THE NBM APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH
WINDS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND DAYTIME HIGHS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWERED. THERE WAS ALSO A
REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AND
GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA,
SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GOING
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT DURING THAT TIME WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE
CASCADES.
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT
LOW, AND THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
INLAND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY, AND RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
A RETURN TO REALITY HERE BY SATURDAY WITH THE MILD READINGS
CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND NEAR NORMAL
TO THE NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, WITH HIGHS NOW LIKELY TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS BY MONDAY.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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