860
FXUS02 KWBC 161949
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 19 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 23 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EMERGES OVER
THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING MODERATE RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY UNCERTAINTY WINTER WEATHER ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
OUT WEST, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH RENEWED PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, PRODUCING A MODEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. COLDER WEATHER
ARRIVES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. INITIALLY,
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WITH A COUPLE
OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD ON
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE EXTENT OF
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN. AFTER THIS, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST WITH UNCERTAIN
SHORTWAVES MOVING INLAND.
THE WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING TO WEIGHTING OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO 60 PERCENT OF THE BLEND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
GENERALLY MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
AS WELL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AND
GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA,
SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GOING
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT DURING THAT TIME WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE
CASCADES.
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT
LOW, AND THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
INLAND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY, AND RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY,
WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTER WEATHER. THE
SPECIFICS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN BUT WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON WHAT AND WHERE, IF
ANYTHING, ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND
NEAR NORMAL TO THE NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, WITH HIGHS NOW LIKELY TO BE
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS BY MONDAY.
SANTORELLI/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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