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FXUS06 KWBC 162002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING
REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN, FEATURING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA; A DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 180 METERS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), AND TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL RELOAD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AND TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO PERSIST. IN THE EAST, A QUICK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS A QUICK CHANCE OF COLD AIR BEFORE
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE BACK IN. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH
BELOW NORMAL FORECASTED HEIGHT DEPARTURES. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST,NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH LIES AHEAD (EAST) OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINING AREAS (CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS) WHERE INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ARE RELATED TO A FORECAST
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST,
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRIEFLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCLUDES MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS, AND SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS
80 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ONLY
OVER THE ALEUTIANS (ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES). FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-AVERAGE
500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES EXCEED 70 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A BROADER AREA OF GREATER THAN 60%
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES HAVE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST
WITH A DEEPER TROUGH BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST WHICH FAVORED A
DRIER-THAN-NORMAL SIGNAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST BENEATH THE STRONGEST
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FURTHER NORTH, CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND ENHANCED
PACIFIC FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 02, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10DAY PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
MUCH OF ALASKA DURING TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 240 METERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED SIGNAL RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND IS
EVIDENT IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS OVER ALASKA. AN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN DISPLACED BY BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. A MAXIMUM OF 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE WEAKER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AT THE END OF WEEK-1 AND INTO WEEK-2 BEFORE A SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER PATTERN
RETURNS. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TEMPERATURE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING PRECIPITATION
FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN PRIOR FORECASTS. INCREASED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AS THE ENHANCED
PACIFIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS
GENERALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC STATES. DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IN ALASKA, AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER
THE BERING SEA AND DEAMPLIFIES TO SOME EXTENT. THIS LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
ZONAL FLOW INTO EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, REDUCING SIGNALS FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210130 - 20180301 - 20110220 - 20080127 - 20090214
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210201 - 20090206 - 20180301 - 20210127 - 20090214
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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