836
FOUS30 KWBC 170052
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z TUE FEB 17 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 17 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS GENERALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST RESULTING IN A LOWERED THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE,
WHICH COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS,
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS PERSISTING.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RATES, BUT THEY
SHOULD BE QUICK MOVING, REDUCING THE DURATION OF THESE HIGHER
RATES. A QUICK 0.25" OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS,
BUT TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD STAY BELOW 1" ACROSS MOST
AREAS (LOCALLY UP TOWARDS 1.5" IN THE MOST FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS).
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER
TODAY. THUS WE WERE ABLE TO LOWER THE ERO RISK TO THE MARGINAL
LEVEL.
CHENARD
DAY 2
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 17 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
20Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY NO CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP FOR THIS PERIOD AS
THE 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES IN ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ARRIVE ACROSS MUCH OF
CA. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, THIS NEW ENERGY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF AS MUCH AS 40 TO 50+ KTS
INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF CENTRAL CA, INCLUDING THE BAY AREA, WITH
THE FRONT AND ONSHORE FLOW THEN SETTLING SOUTH TOWARD THE
TRANSVERSE RANGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IVT MAGNITUDES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE AS HIGH AS 300 TO 500 KG/M/S WHICH COUPLED WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN SHOULD FOSTER SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF RAINFALL RATES AT LEAST APPROACHING A 0.50"/HOUR.
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY DOWN ACROSS THE TRANSVERSE RANGE. GIVEN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE DAY 1 STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION, THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY FOSTER AT
LEAST SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED AREAS OF
URBAN FLOODING AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT NEAR
MORE SENSITIVE SLOPED TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ANY BURN SCAR AREAS.
THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED JUST A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO THE BAY AREA, BUT OTHERWISE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY ARE
MINIMAL.
ORRISON
~~~~PRIOR DISCUSSION~~~~
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY, SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
INGREDIENTS WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON TUESDAY THAN TODAY, THUS A
MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH THE SAN
DIEGO METRO WILL SUFFICE. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE LOWER SO
UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGES WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
WHERE THEY SEE RAIN TODAY. SATURATED SOILS FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THAT
OCCURS WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
KEBEDE
DAY 3
VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
ORRISON
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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