686
FXUS02 KWBC 170755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 24 2026
***POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST U.S.***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WHILE A SECOND LOW FORMS NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE GOING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AND THEN DEVELOPS FURTHER UPON
EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY, WITH A NOR'EASTER BECOMING
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHER PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND INLAND SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS. MEANWHILE OUT WEST, A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON, KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY, WITH A NEARLY MULTI-
DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND SUFFICING AS A STARTING POINT FOR FRONTS
AND PRESSURES. GOING INTO THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME PERIOD, THERE
HAS BEEN A DEFINITIVE TREND FOR A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NOR'EASTER TO BRING ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS.
THE LATEST UKMET AND GFS ARE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MORE
IMPACTFUL, SIMILAR TO RECENT RUNS OF THE AIFS GUIDANCE, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED AND TAKES THE LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST
FASTER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SPURRING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
THE NBM APPEARED FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS WERE LOWERED FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT QPF WAS ADDED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
AND WINDS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO NBM75 NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR FROM VIRGINIA TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED EVEN FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AND
GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA,
SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GOING
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY, AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT DURING THAT TIME WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW
FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND FOR ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS EVENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE.
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT LOW, AND THERE IS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INLAND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE. AN INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY, AND IF THAT COMES TO PASS, HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND
INLAND SNOW COULD BE THE CASE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND, AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE SPECIFICS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
INLAND EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION, SO STAY TUNED FOR
LATER UPDATES ON THIS EVENT.
WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS,
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO THE NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A CONTINUED
TREND FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, WITH HIGHS NOW LIKELY TO BE
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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