211
FOUS30 KWBC 171555
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z TUE FEB 17 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
16Z UPDATE:
LEADING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH HAS DUG INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HELPING TO CONCENTRATE THE LOW LEVEL WAA
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL CONCENTRATION HAS
BROUGHT TOTAL PWATS UP TOWARD .75" WHILE INCREASING ORTHOGONAL
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RANGES TO SUPPORT .33-.5" HOURLY RAIN
RATES. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL
TOTALS TO BELOW 2.5" EVEN WITHIN THE TERRAIN (OR BELOW FREEZING
LEVEL ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA), BUT AS NOTED
BELOW THE ANTECEDENT UPPER SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED THAT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RUN-OFF IS EXPECTED. STILL, ANY FLOODING
WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR OR LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY AFFECT URBAN SETTINGS
AND/OR RECENT BURN SCARS, INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL CA.
THE BROADER PRE-FRONTAL WAA WILL INTERSECT THE SANTA LUCIA FOR A
LONGER DURATION; SO WHILE RATES MAY REACH UP TO .5" LOCALIZED
TOTALS AT OR ABOVE 2" ARE INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AND MORE IN RANGE
OF A TYPICAL WEAK AR WITH 400-500 KG/M/S IVT VALUES. THROUGH
EVENING, THERE IS SOME HINT OF SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER INTERSECTING THE PRE-FRONTAL PLUME AND
IVT VALUES MAY REACH 500+ KG/M/S, HOWEVER, THE INTERSECTION WITH
TERRAIN WILL BE A BIT MORE OBLIQUE MAINTAINING OR SLIGHTLY
REDUCING THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DRIVING THE RAINFALL
RATES (STILL GENERALLY ABOUT .3-.5"/HR MAINLY AFTER 03-06Z.
SO ALL IN ALL, THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH OF THE BAY AREA THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST/COASTAL RANGES.
GALLINA
~~~~PRIOR DISCUSSION~~~~
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE NORTH/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST TO SOCAL THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BETWEEN 50-150 J/KG MUCAPE, BETWEEN
00Z-12Z TONIGHT, WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHEN THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.75"
RANGE WON'T BE VERY ANOMALOUS (1-2 STNDV), HOWEVER ISOLATED POCKETS
OF EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AROUND 1" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND PWATS. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND TRANSVERSE RANGES COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN
THOSE AREAS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF MONDAY'S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE MOST OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS REALIZE
HIGHER QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY'S RAINFALL WILL MAKE SOILS AND
BURN SCARS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF TODAY. URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE VULNERABLE. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOW A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH WITHIN MUCH OF THE CURRENT MARGINAL RISK
AREA.
KEBEDE
DAY 2
VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KEBEDE
DAY 3
VALID 12Z THU FEB 19 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KEBEDE
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page