550
FXUS02 KWBC 171929
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 24 2026
...POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BUT WITH VERY UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WHILE A SECOND LOW FORMS NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE GOING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SATURDAY DEEPENING AS IT EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY, WITH A NOR'EASTER BECOMING MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR RAIN AND INLAND SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS. MEANWHILE OUT WEST, A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON, KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE, WITH IMPROVING BUT STILL VERY UNCERTAIN DETAILS. THE
BIGGEST SOURCE FOR UNCERTAINTY IS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER/MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE OPEN WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IS FAIRLY HIGH, THE TIMING, TRACK, AND EXACT
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST BUT THE AMOUNTS AND
TYPE (RAIN VS SNOW VS MIX) IS VARIABLE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THE ECMWF (INCLUDING THE NEW 12Z RUN THIS AFTERNOON) WHICH HAS A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EC-AIFS MODEL THOUGH, HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FAIRLY CLASSIC NOR'EASTER SET UP FOR THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
OUT WEST, A LARGE UPPER LOW MEANDERS OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS, LOBES OF ENERGY MAY START MOVING INLAND BUT
THE MODELS SHOW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE.
THE WPC FORECAST FOR TODAY USED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. AFTER THIS, TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE WEIGHTING OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN THE INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY BOTH ACROSS THE EAST AND OUT WEST. THIS OVERALL
MAINTAINED GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AS WELL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AND
GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA,
SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GOING
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY, AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN WASHINGTON, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT DURING THAT TIME WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW
FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES.
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE
END OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT LOW, AND THERE IS AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY INLAND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE. AFTER THIS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A COASTAL LOW BY
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY, AND IF THAT COMES TO PASS, HEAVY COASTAL
RAIN AND INLAND SNOW COULD BE THE CASE FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC TO
NEW ENGLAND, AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE SPECIFICS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
LOW ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
INLAND EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION, SO STAY TUNED FOR
LATER UPDATES ON THIS EVENT.
WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE
ACROSS A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS RUNNING UP
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO THE NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN A CONTINUED
TREND FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, WITH HIGHS NOW LIKELY TO BE
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
SANTORELLI/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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