921
FXUS01 KWBC 171932
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 00Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 00Z FRI FEB 20 2026
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE
RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...EXTREME RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY; ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE WESTERN U.S. REMAINS COOLER
AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED UPPER-WAVES TRAVERSE A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. MULTI-DAY, VERY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS OF MORE THAN
A FOOT ARE EXPECTED BROADLY FROM THE SOUTHERN CASCADES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN
EAST THROUGH THE RANGES OF THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR THE RANGES
OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 FEET, AND FOR THE SIERRA,
WHERE TOTALS MAY REACH 3-4'+. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TREND LIGHTER
FOR MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
UPPER-WAVE BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW TO THE SIERRA.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHERE ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS A RISK, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAL
BURN SCARS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INLAND FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS JUST AS ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONG, DOWNSLOPING WINDS WITH ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE
LED TO A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HIGHLIGHTING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH AN EXTREME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA (LEVEL 3/3)
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL 2/3) CONTINUES FOR
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, IN THE COLDER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, A SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE ICE ACCRETIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH AS
WELL AS MODERATE SNOW TOTALS IN THE 3-6" RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS LEADING TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ORGANIZING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE
FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL FIRST BRING MODERATE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY, WITH A SWATH OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW THAN EXPANDING EASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TRACK
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD WARM SECTOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMPARED TO THE PRIOR SYSTEM.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL
AS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
PORTION OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) THURSDAY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-PATTERN WITH BROAD MEAN UPPER-RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE EAST AND BELOW AVERAGE TO THE
WEST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES ABOVE MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER, 50S AND 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND 70S AND 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST, THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ACTIVE PATTERN OVER
THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, 50S FOR
CALIFORNIA, AND 60S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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