003
FXUS06 KWBC 172002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A
STABLE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT IS CONSISTENT
WITH A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (-PNA) PATTERN. RIDGING IS
PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING
SEA. TROUGHING IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH THIS FEATURE
RETROGRADING TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY-10. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE
TRANSIENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS AND EXPANDING INTO THE MIDWEST. THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA
WITH A -120 METER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS AND GREAT
LAKES, WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WHILE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAWAII EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN THE EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY TIED TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST PRIOR TO THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE UNCALIBRATED AND SHORT-TERM BIAS CORRECTED FORECAST TOOLS
DEPICTING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. THEREFORE, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPSTREAM,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
COAST TIED TO PERSISTENT ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AND SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
IN ADDITION TO THE ANALOGS. NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER
HAWAII.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG THE GULF COAST, INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER IN THE PERIOD TIED TO ENHANCED RETURN FLOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST TIED TO ENHANCED ONSHORE
FLOW, WITH THE LARGEST INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES FOCUSED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FOR ALASKA, NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
GIVEN MUCH OF THE STRONGER ENHANCED MOISTURE IS FAVORED TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST OVER HAWAII TIED TO TROUGHING TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION,
OFFSET BY A MORE TRANSIENT PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 03, 2026
THE -PNA PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO
WEEK-2 RESULTING IN A SIMILAR FORECAST TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHING
REMAINS FORECAST CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER
THE BERING SEA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS OVER THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WHERE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO DEPART, ALLOWING
FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND WHICH DEPICTS
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO MUCH
OF THE EAST. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND INTO MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH
TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE FAR
WESTERN MAINLAND. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ODDS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. ACROSS
THE WEST COAST, THE REFORECAST TOOLS TILT WARMER WHILE THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS
AND ANALOG GUIDANCE FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. THESE DIFFERENCES, COMBINED WITH
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH LATER IN WEEK-2 FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, BUT ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TIED TO A MORE NORTHWARD ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS. ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS SUPPORTED BY
THE REFORECSAT AND UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. RETURN FLOW AND A
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUPPORT PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. INCREASED ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WEAKLY FAVORED OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST OVER HAWAII DUE TO A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A GENERALLY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME WEAKENING SIGNALS
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180301 - 20110219 - 20210130 - 20090303 - 20090225
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180301 - 20210131 - 20110219 - 20080127 - 20090214
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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