619
FOUS30 KWBC 180016
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
18/01Z UPDATE:
LEADING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO
DIG INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MRMS HAS DEPICTED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY 0.2 INCHES OR
LOWER ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY SEEN RATES APPROACH 0.5
INCHES. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL
TOTALS TO BELOW 2.5" EVEN WITHIN THE TERRAIN (OR BELOW FREEZING
LEVEL ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA), BUT AS NOTED
BELOW THE ANTECEDENT UPPER SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED AND THAT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RUN-OFF REMAINS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...ANY FLOODING WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR OR
LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY AFFECT URBAN SETTINGS AND/OR RECENT BURN
SCARS, INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL CA.
THROUGH EVENING, THERE IS SOME HINT OF SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE SURFACE TO BOUNDARY LAYER INTERSECTING THE PRE-FRONTAL
PLUME AND IVT VALUES MAY REACH 500+ KG/M/S, HOWEVER, THE
INTERSECTION WITH TERRAIN WILL BE A BIT MORE OBLIQUE THAN IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO...MAINTAINING OR SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAT WILL BE DRIVING THE RAINFALL RATES
(STILL GENERALLY ABOUT .3-.5"/HR) MAINLY THROUGH 18/06Z.
REMOVED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WHERE THE
PLUME OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL HAS
PUSHED SOUTH. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...THERE COULD STILL BE ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES FROM PASSING SHOWERS BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH
INTENSITY OR DURATION TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK. THERE WERE NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FARTHER SOUTH.
GALLINA/BANN
~~~~PRIOR DISCUSSION~~~~
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM THE NORTH/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST TO SOCAL THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BETWEEN 50-150 J/KG MUCAPE, BETWEEN
00Z-12Z TONIGHT, WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHEN THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.5-0.75"
RANGE WON'T BE VERY ANOMALOUS (1-2 STNDV), HOWEVER ISOLATED POCKETS
OF EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AROUND 1" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND PWATS. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND TRANSVERSE RANGES COULD LEAD TO HIGHER TOTALS IN
THOSE AREAS. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF MONDAY'S COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE MOST OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS REALIZE
HIGHER QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY'S RAINFALL WILL MAKE SOILS AND
BURN SCARS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF TODAY. URBAN AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE VULNERABLE. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES SHOW A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH WITHIN MUCH OF THE CURRENT MARGINAL RISK
AREA.
KEBEDE
DAY 2
VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KEBEDE
DAY 3
VALID 12Z THU FEB 19 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
KEBEDE
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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