622
FXUS01 KWBC 180628
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL AS THE
RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...A SWATH OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
NEW ENGLAND; ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE WESTERN U.S. REMAINS COOLER
AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE...
THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
A ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE
ENHANCED LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE CASCADES, SIERRA NEVADA, AND ROCKIES. CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 8" WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN
CASCADES AND SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL RANGES. LATE THURSDAY,
PRECIPIATION WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BUILD.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, LOCAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL PRECIPIATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, NEVADA
AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPIATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING
MODERATE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THEREFORE, STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR A FEW TORNADOES FOR PARTS
OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND NORTHEAST, BRINGING RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AS GUSTY WINDS, ABNORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSIST. THEREFORE, STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL 2/3) FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-PATTERN WITH BROAD MEAN UPPER-RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE EAST AND BELOW AVERAGE TO THE
WEST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WHERE HIGHS IN THE
70S ARE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES ABOVE MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER, 50S AND 60S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND 70S AND 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST, THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ACTIVE PATTERN OVER
THE WEST WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, 50S FOR
CALIFORNIA, AND 60S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OUDIT/PUTNAM
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