744
FXUS02 KWBC 181918
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2026
...POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BUT WITH VERY UNCERTAIN OVERALL IMPACTS...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
COLDER WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SATURDAY DEEPENING AS IT EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY, WITH A POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR RAIN AND INLAND SNOW,
AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. MEANWHILE OUT WEST,
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON, KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY, BUT
WITH A LOT OF CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY BEING MORE SOUTH/OFFSHORE. THEN
00Z/06Z GUIDANCE TODAY SEEMED TO SHOW A TREND TOWARDS THIS
SOUTHERN SOLUTION, BUT SOME OF THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON
CAME NORTH AGAIN. THIS REMAINS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR BIGGER IMPACTS DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS ALL IS RELATED TO THE DETAILS OF
PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN AN EVENTUAL AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
EAST.
OUT WEST, THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE LOW
OFF THE COAST, DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. BY LATE PERIOD, TIMING OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE THE LATTER HALF. THIS ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS
EXPECTED TO IDLE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN OREGON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES. A
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON ON
SUNDAY.
THERE REMAINS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY FOR THE EAST COAST, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
COASTAL RAIN AND INLAND SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND,
AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LESS INLAND
PRECIPITATION AND WIND, AND HIGHEST QPF NEAR THE DELMARVA AND
EXTENDING TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH SCENARIOS REMAIN EQUALLY
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME POSSIBLE
IMPACTFUL SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS EVEN SUBTLE CHANGES
IN TRACK COULD MEAN MORE DRASTIC CHANGES TO IMPACTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS LOWER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO THE NORTH. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS, WITH THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS THE EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.
SANTORELLI/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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