123
FXCA20 KWBC 181938
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 18 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1940 UTC:
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL
FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE WESTERN
COASTS OF COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, AND PERU ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ENHANCED
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH, THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ, WARM SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE
PANAMANIAN LLJ HAD ENHANCED THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WEST OF COLOMBIA
BY ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MEANING
THAT IT HELPED SHAPE THE AREA OF CONFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH, NEARING THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL REGION.
IN ADDITION, THE ENHANCED WARMING OF THE COASTAL REGIONS HAVE
PROVIDED FUEL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION, AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE COOLING EFFECTS OF
THE PANAMA LLJ. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS CREATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA REGION. THIS DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH OF SOUTH AMERICA
MEANDERS EASTWARD, WHILE A NEW RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA EMERGES TO REORGANIZE AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE INLAND, OVER THE
WESTERN AMAZON RIVER BY LATER INTO THE WORK WEEK. AS SUCH, THE
CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN WEST ECUADOR AND NORTHWEST
PERU ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND DECREASING INTO
THE EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, THE ENTRANCE OF A
PROPAGATING LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PANAMA GULF WILL ENHANCE THE
CYCLONIC ROTATION OVER THE REGION, AND FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM WEST ECUADOR TO THE TUMBES REGION IN PERU,
WHILE WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY, A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
ECUADOR AND NORTHWEST PERU, WHILE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH THE INCREASE OF MOIST ONSHORE
REACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
35-70MM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM WEST COLOMBIA THROUGH
NORTHWEST PERU.
OVER THE AMAZON BASIN AND THE GUIANAS, EXPECT LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
PROPAGATING THE TRADE WINDS AND FAVORING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE PROVIDING FUEL. THE AREAS OF
DIFFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN AS THE
CAVADO DO NORDESTE HAS A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
BRASIL REGION, WHICH INTERACTS WITH THE WEAKENED BOLIVIAN HIGH,
NOW CENTERED FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CHACO REGION AND PARAGUAY ON
WEDNESDAY, AS WELL AS AN INTERACTION WITH A REORGANIZING RIDGE
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN
AMAZON BASIN, AND WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN. OVER
THE GUIANAS AND THE AMAZON DELTA REGION, EXPECT CONTINUOUS MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC ITCZ ENTERING THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY FRIDAY, A PROPAGATING LOW
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION, ENHANCING ADVECTING MOISTURE
AND FAVORING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN
THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN, WHILE THE AMAZON DELTA, AND WESTERN
AMAZON BASIN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY, TROUGHING
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN, WHILE AN INCREASE OF 25-50MM IS EXPECTED
IN AMAPA AND THE AMAZON DELTA REGION. BY FRIDAY MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN THE AMAZON DELTA.
IN THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA REGION, A GENERALIZED DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE DECREASE IN THE EXTENT OF THE
CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET REACHING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION. IN ADDITION,
A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION,
FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL PANAMA, WHILE MAXIMA OF 15-30MM
ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA INTO EAST COSTA RICA, SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PANAMA. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COSTA RICA AND EAST PANAMA INTO THE DARIEN
REGION, WHILE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PANAMA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA TO THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION OF PANAMA, WHILE EAST
PANAMA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS, AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AS A
STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND TRADE WIND INVERSIONS, LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, THE LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE LOW,
EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST MEXICO DUE TO THE ENTRANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF PROPAGATING
MOIST PLUMES FROM FRONT REMNANTS CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WINDS FROM
THE EAST. TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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