105
FXUS06 KWBC 182002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 18 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - 28 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A
STABLE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THAT IS CONSISTENT
WITH A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (-PNA) PATTERN DURING THE
FINAL WEEK OF FEBRUARY. RIDGING IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC,
EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA. TROUGHING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH THIS FEATURE RETROGRADING TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY DAY-10. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE TRANSIENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING
INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS EXPANDING INTO THE EAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS LIMITS THE NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE 6-10 DAY
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EXTENDING THROUGH MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAWAII
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF COLDER TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST BEGINNING
PRIOR TO AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UNCALIBRATED
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA ON DAY-6 (FEB 23), WITH MANY AREAS OF THE EAST
FLIPPING BACK TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS PROGRESSION AND QUICK MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE,
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SCOPED TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80
PERCENT) OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHERE NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED DUE TO PERSISTENT ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE
UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, ALONG WITH ANALOG AND TELECONNECTION
GUIDANCE. NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED
OVER HAWAII.
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST TIED TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE LARGEST INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) VALUES FOCUSED ACROSS CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS ENHANCED SIGNAL, COMBINED WITH
A RELATIVELY LOWER PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH,
SUPPORTS PROBABILITIES ABOVE 60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CONUS, TIED TO A POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD (GREATER THAN 1-INCH) IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, CORRESPONDING WITH
PROBABILITIES ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SUPPORT
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE STORM TRACK.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPANDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND UNDERNEATH ENHANCED NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST OVER HAWAII TIED TO
TROUGHING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION,
OFFSET BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST, AND RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 04, 2026
A SIMILAR 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING WEEK-2 AS IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING
-PNA. TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH RIDGING
UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA. A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
EXPANDING INTO THE EAST, BUT WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND WHICH
DEPICTS AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS (-150 METERS) ARE CENTRED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST UPSTREAM OVER
THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER THE
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES. ACROSS THE WEST COAST, THE
REFORECAST TOOLS TILT WARMER WHILE THE UNCALIBRATED TOOLS AND ANALOG GUIDANCE
FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. THESE DIFFERENCES, COMBINED WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF THE TROUGH LATER IN WEEK-2 FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST TOOL.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, BUT ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TIED TO A MORE NORTHWARD ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS. RETURN FLOW AND A
POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUPPORT PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 40
PERCENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS, WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER NORTH INTO
CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA
TIED TO INCREASED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A DECENT DRY SIGNAL EMERGING IN
THE FORECAST TOOLS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEAKLY FAVORED
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS
FORECAST OVER HAWAII DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH STRONG
CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A GENERALLY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME WEAKENING SIGNALS
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110219 - 20090304 - 20180301 - 20210129 - 20190203
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180301 - 20110219 - 20210131 - 20090303 - 20080128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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