263
FXUS02 KWBC 190717
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 26 2026
***POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC BUT WITH UNCERTAIN OVERALL
IMPACTS***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST COMING UP THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S., THAT WILL THEN EMERGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTENSIFY INTO A NOR'EASTER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH
WILL ALSO BRING COLDER WEATHER TO THE EAST COAST TO START THE WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN PLACE OFF THE
OREGON COAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN COMMENCES BY MID-WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY, BUT
WITH A LOT OF CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET REMAINING MORE SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE AS IT EXITS THE COAST, WHEREAS THE GFS IS CLOSEST AND HAS
THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS IT PERTAINS TO EXTENT
OF WINTRY WEATHER AND COASTAL WINDS. THIS IS RELATED TO THE
DETAILS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM AND
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN AN EVENTUAL AMPLIFIED MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EAST TO START THE WORK WEEK. OUT WEST, THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING UPPER/SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST,
DIRECTING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. BY LATE PERIOD, TIMING OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY
INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, IT APPEARED REASONABLE AS A STARTING POINT
FOR MOST AREAS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND QPF, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE VALUES WERE
SLIGHTLY RAISED TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND ALSO FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO
IDLE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN OREGON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES. A
MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
ON SUNDAY AND ALSO INTO MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY FOR THE EAST COAST, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
COASTAL RAIN AND INLAND SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND,
AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LESS INLAND
PRECIPITATION AND WIND, AND HIGHEST QPF NEAR THE DELMARVA AND
EXTENDING TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH SCENARIOS REMAIN EQUALLY
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME POSSIBLE
IMPACTFUL SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS EVEN SUBTLE CHANGES
IN TRACK COULD MEAN MORE DRASTIC CHANGES TO IMPACTS.
A RETURN TO REALITY IS COMING FOR THE EASTERN U.S. AFTER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE
DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL
ADVECT A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MONDAY AND STILL REMAINING RATHER CHILLY INTO TUESDAY. A
MODERATING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE BY MIDWEEK AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE COLD HIGH DEPARTS. THE WARMEST READINGS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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