089
FXUS01 KWBC 190819
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 19 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 21 2026
...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...A DYNAMIC WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD SNOW, ICE AND SLEET IMPACTS
FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT; SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN MIDWEST TODAY
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
...ACTIVE WEST COAST PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY LOW
ELEVATION RAIN ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
THE SIERRA...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
SPREAD FROM WEST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A DEEP AND DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY, SPREADING MULTIPLE HAZARDS FROM THERE TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUT DOWN SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA TODAY FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH THE THREAT OF A COUPLE TORNADOES,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, ACCORDING TO THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THERE'S
ALSO A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER, DUE TO WARM, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO,
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
TODAY.
THE SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WHILE SPREADING OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IMPACTS FROM THIS
WINTER WEATHER ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE MINOR. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES, WHERE SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE, ACCORDING TO SPC. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING DRY, WINDY, WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IS
IN PLACE OVER THERE AS A RESULT.
IN THE WEST, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA IS LIKELY
TODAY, AS WELL AS COASTAL/LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF OVER 2
FEET WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF OVER 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEST, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S WILL BE 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROUGHING IN THE WEST SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THESE
COOL CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
AN END TO THE MILD WEATHER IN THE EAST.
KEBEDE
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