000
FXUS01 KWBC 191902
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 20 2026 - 00Z SUN FEB 22 2026
...A TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE RECENT VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
CALIFORNIA...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE LIKELY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS PERSIST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND...
...MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA...
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES AND
FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AFTER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAINS AND VERY HEAVY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RESPITE
TO THE ACTIVE WEST COAST/CALIFORNIA WEATHER PATTERN. ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PRODUCING THE CURRENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
FEW DAYS OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR CALIFORNIA, BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE COAST BRINGS PRECIP BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST, THAT HAS
SUPPORTED THE RECENT WET PATTERN, WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST,
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. A
FEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE BELOW AVERAGE WESTERN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IN CONTRAST TO THE COLD WEST, MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SAVE FOR NEW ENGLAND, OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. SIMILAR TO THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE WEST, THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING FRIDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT FROM THIS
STRENGTHENING STORM, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONSISTING
OF HIGH WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS THE RISK
OF FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE RECENT SNOW MELT HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED.
NO LET UP TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO/FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, EAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS, MUCH OF OKLAHOMA, SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ORAVEC
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