412
FXCA20 KWBC 191919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1920 UTC:
IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGIONS OF MEXICO, THE CARIBBEAN, AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA CAN EXPECT TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A POTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER THE REGION, FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS OVER
THE REGION, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION, SEASONAL AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAIN LOW OVER
THE REGION, WITH THE OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL PLUMES THAT TRAVEL THE
TRADE WINDS AND BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN REGION, WITH MAXIMA REMAINING BELOW 15-20MM. THE
ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER MEXICO ON SATURDAY
DUE TO A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND REACH NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR PREFRONTAL TROUGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ENTERING INTO VERACRUZ WITH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
FAVORING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH VALUES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
EXCEEDING 25-30MM. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 10MM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
SIMILAR WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ)
FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF MOIST PLUMES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, WHICH
MAKE IT TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. AS THESE MOIST
WINDS REMAIN FAST, THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. IN ADDITION, THE CONTINUOUS EFFECT OF THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FAVORS CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY, A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM THE LIMON REGION IN COSTA RICA
THROUGH THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION OF PANAMA. FROM SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA AND THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY, A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEGINS,
AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA THROUGH COSTA RICA AND NORTHWEST
PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY SATURDAY, EXPECT THE
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS TO CONTINUE AS MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE POSSIBLE.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE OVER THE
REGION FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVER THE FIRST
TWO DAYS, THE BOLIVIAN HIGH REMAINS MUCH TO THE SOUTH, CENTERED
OVER THE CHACO REGION AND MEANDERING OVER PARAGUAY AND SOUTH
BOLIVIA ON FRIDAY. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT,
ANOTHER RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN, FAVORING
DIFFLUENCE IN THE REGION FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TO THE EAST,
TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN AMAZON
BASIN, FAVORING SOME DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN AMAZON AND INTO
THE AMAZON DELTA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, FROM WEST COLOMBIA THROUGH
NORTHWEST PERU EXPECT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE
REGION, FAVORING MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL REGION
INTO TUMBES-PERU, WHILE A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWEST ECUADOR ON THURSDAY. OVER THE
AMAZON BASIN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL AMAZON, WHILE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
AMAZON DELTA REGION INTO THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN. ON FRIDAY,
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. A PROPAGATING LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ENTERS THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE GUIANAS AND THE AMAZON
DELTA AND FAVORS MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE CENTRAL AMAZON
BASIN, EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION WITH GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER THE REGION. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
RESTRUCTURING OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IN THE SOUTH, EXPECT ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AMAZON BASIN, FAVORING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION, WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM FROM THE AMAZON
DELTA ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN. IN WESTERN ECUADOR, ENHANCED MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN THE REGION.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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