524
FXSA20 KWBC 191949
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1950 UTC:
IN THE LOW MID-LATITUDES AND SUBTROPICS...
A PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT IN THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BE NEAR SAO PAULO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN IN THIS REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION
AND ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FROM THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE WIND FIELD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA REACHING
40MM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS ACROSS SAO PAULO AND RIO DE JANEIRO.
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL BRASIL, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
ALSO KNOWN AS THE CAVADO DO NORDESTE, WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 23S
59W ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INTERACTION WILL ENHANCE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE DEFINITION ON SATURDAY
BUT A GENERALIZED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN THE
REGION. NOTE THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40W.
MEANWHILE, A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROJECTED IN
THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISORGANIZED
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE CONTINENT.
ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL BRASIL AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WILL
ENABLE THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WELL. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL YIELD
ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS THE CERRADO, TOCANTINS,
AND THE INTERIOR NORDESTE REGIONS OF BRASIL FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO BAHIA, WHERE MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE
AMPLIFIED. EXPECT ENHANCED DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IN
THIS REGION AS WELL.
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS, LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE AMAZON
BASIN. ON THURSDAY, UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND THE NORTHWEST AMAZON. MID-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SUPPORTING
VERTICAL ASCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
INITIATION OF CONVECTION IN THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE AMAZON BASIN. MEANWHILE ALONG THE
AMAZON DELTA AND THE GUIANAS, THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION. NOTE THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE REACHING 50MM THROUGH THE ENTIRE
BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NORTHERN PERU AND ECUADOR, A WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE IN THE REGION.
THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA EXCEEDING
50MM. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN THIS REGION. PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER
COLOMBIA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS.
REGARDLESS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE REACHING 50MM.
IN THE HIGHER MID-LATITUDES...
THE AXIS OF A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL ARGENTINA AND INTO URUGUAY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEAST BRASIL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,
CREATING A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARGENTINA AND NORTHERN URUGUAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED FROM THE CHACO REGION TO THE MESOPOTAMIAN REGION ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CHACO REGION AND SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY BEFORE LOSING ITS
DEFINITION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS PERIOD, A MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ANDES
AND WILL SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CHACO LOW. THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES,
LEADING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 50MM FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, ONE OF THE REGIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS THE CHACO ON THURSDAY, WHERE A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 70MM IS LIKELY. ANOTHER REGION OF
INTEREST IS URUGUAY AND THE MESOPOTAMIA REGION OF ARGENTINA, WHERE
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE INITIATION
OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY, YIELDING TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
OF 30 - 60MM FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY, THE REGIONS WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE THE CHACO
REGION AND SOUTHEAST BRASIL. ON SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE CHACO REGION WHERE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL REACH 40 - 80MM. FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, STILL EXPECT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARGENTINA
AND CORDOBA, WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. THERE
WILL BE A DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA REACHING 35MM.
IN CHILE, A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE CONVERGING INTO THE
NORTHERN AUSTRAL REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY ON THURSDAY,
COMING FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER SATURDAY, THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME LIMITED. THUS, THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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