831
FXUS02 KWBC 192000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 26 2026
...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST REMAINS A
DISTINCT THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS FROM MID-ATLANTIC TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY TO MONDAY. A WAVY AND SLOW-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING THE PROSPECT OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, THE NORTHEAST, AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MUCH OF THE MODEL DISCREPANCY SEEN DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE LATEST GFS
FORECASTS HAVE TURNED EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN INFLUX OF
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD WATERS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
INTERACTING WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS
SCENARIO IS VERY SENSITIVE TO EVEN SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. THE EUROPEAN
MODELS (ECMWF AND UKMET) CONTINUE TO FAVOR LESS AGGRESSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS AND MORE OFFSHORE TRACK COMPARED WITH THE GFS AND CMC
WHILE THE EC-AIFS AND AIGFS OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE WPC FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLONE LEANS TOWARD COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS BUT NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS SOLUTION.
FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLE
FOR THE SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLE
SPREAD EMERGES FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
SUFFICE TO HANDLE THE WEST COAST WHILE A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOULD YIELD A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
SYSTEM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN OREGON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO THE CASCADES. A
MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
ON SUNDAY AND ALSO INTO MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW BY SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY FOR THE EAST COAST, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS TRACK. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD
RESULT IN HEAVY COASTAL RAIN AND INLAND SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO NEW ENGLAND, AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING. A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LESS
INLAND PRECIPITATION AND WIND, AND HIGHEST QPF NEAR THE DELMARVA
AND EXTENDING TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. BOTH SCENARIOS REMAIN
EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT, BUT POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SOME
POSSIBLE IMPACTFUL SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS EVEN
SUBTLE CHANGES IN TRACK COULD MEAN MORE DRASTIC CHANGES TO IMPACTS.
A RETURN TO REALITY IS COMING FOR THE EASTERN U.S. AFTER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE
DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THAT WILL
ADVECT A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEBRUARY AVERAGES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MONDAY AND STILL REMAINING RATHER CHILLY INTO TUESDAY. A
MODERATING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE BY MIDWEEK AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE COLD HIGH DEPARTS. THE WARMEST READINGS
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS UP
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KONG/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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