698
FXUS06 KWBC 192002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS
BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS
RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE 6-10
DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CONUS, MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAWAII EARLY IN THE PERIOD, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, TEXAS, AND OKLAHOMA. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON, IDAHO, NORTH DAKOTA,
MINNESOTA, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN
90 PERCENT) OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA. FOR
HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ERF-CON TOOL SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST TIED TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. A BROAD AREA OF INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
ALSO HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CONUS, TIED TO
A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED
RETURN FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, FARTHER DISPLACED
FROM THE STORM TRACK. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPANDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND UNDERNEATH ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FORECAST OVER HAWAII TIED TO TROUGHING
TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION,
OFFSET BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST, AND RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A SIMILAR
500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING WEEK-2 AS IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, BUT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING -PNA.
TROUGHING REMAINS FORECAST OVER ALASKA WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING
SEA. A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES,
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EXPANDING INTO THE EAST, BUT WITH
CONTINUED TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND WHICH DEPICTS AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FORECAST UPSTREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
REFORECAST TOOL.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, BUT ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, TIED
TO A MORE NORTHWARD ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. RETURN FLOW AND A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW EARLY IN
THE PERIOD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS UNDERNEATH RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. INCREASED ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MAINLAND
ALASKA TIED TO INCREASED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A DECENT DRY SIGNAL
EMERGING IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINING
WEAKLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FORECAST OVER HAWAII DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS UNDERNEATH
STRONG CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A GENERALLY PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME WEAKENING SIGNALS
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110219 - 20090305 - 20180301 - 20110224 - 20190215
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110219 - 20180301 - 20090304 - 20210129 - 20090214
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page