481
FXUS02 KWBC 200739
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 23 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 27 2026
...HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS/COASTAL HAZARDS COULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..OVERVIEW
A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW COULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (ESPECIALLY EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS) INTO
MONDAY, WITH HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS BEFORE IT PULLS
AWAY. MEANWHILE, AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COINCIDENT WITH A WAVY AND
SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN OREGON
TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY-TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. DOWNSTREAM, PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, INCLUDING NORTHERN TIER
WINTRY WEATHER.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE FIRST FEATURE OF MODEL DIAGNOSTICS CONCERN WILL BE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW/NOR'EASTER. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE MODEL SPREAD
AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THAN TYPICAL AT THIS TIME RANGE,
WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING RELATED SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING IN
VARIOUS WAYS WITHIN THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
DYNAMICAL AND AI MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY, IN SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE OLDER GFS
RUNS CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE FARTHER OFFSHORE OLDER EC/CMC.
THIS SHOULD LIKELY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS,
BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH IN THE EAST LIFTING TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WHILE UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES AT LEAST THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES, BUT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AS ENERGIES MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS IT. BY WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST, BUT MORE MODEL
SPREAD ARISES WITH ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK BEYOND THEN. THE 12/18Z
GFS RUNS WERE GENERALLY MORE STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH THIS ENERGY THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE
NEWER 00Z GFS SEEMS MORE LIKE THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SHORTWAVE, BUT IS QUITE STRONG AND CONSOLIDATED, AND SPINS
UP A OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW THURSDAY-FRIDAY THAT
OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE. UPSTREAM, MOST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LOW CUTTING OFF WELL OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC BY THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE 12Z CMC, WHICH TOOK THIS ENERGY
NEAR CALIFORNIA AS A SHORTWAVE BY FRIDAY AND SHOWED OTHER OUT OF
PHASE ISSUES, BUT THE 00Z RUN IS NOW BETTER IN LINE.
THUS THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND AIFS EARLY IN THE FORECAST. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSED,
INCREASED THE PROPORTION OF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ABOUT HALF DAY 6 AND
MORE DAY 7 AMID THE INCREASING SPREAD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD, THIS SHOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, AND HIGH WINDS AND
WAVES/COASTAL CONCERNS COULD LINGER. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND
APPALACHIANS UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
PRIMARY LOW INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TWO. THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO SEE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFFECT SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON, MUCH OF OREGON, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, AND
TRACKING SOUTH A BIT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR CALIFORNIA) AND
A SOMEWHAT LONG DURATION EVENT WILL LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE DAY 4/MONDAY AND
DAY 5/TUESDAY EROS. SOME AREAS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA VICINITY THAT
JUST RECEIVED MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS WARMER
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, IS LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY EXPECT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THIS DEPENDS ON A
MORE UNCERTAIN PATTERN BY THEN.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES IN BEHIND
THE ATLANTIC LOW. MEANWHILE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THESE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WEST AND
REACH THE PLAINS TUESDAY, AND LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BE COMMON, LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S IN TEXAS AND OVER 90F IN PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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