473
FXUS01 KWBC 200811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026
...A TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE RECENT VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
CALIFORNIA...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE LIKELY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
PLAINS, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS PERSIST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND...
...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES AND
FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL IS ON DECK FOR THE WEST COAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IN IT'S WAKE,
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW, UNTIL ANOTHER
SERIES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY BRINGS
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SO STAY TUNED AS THE FORECAST COMES INTO
RANGE. THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST THAT
HAS SUPPORTED THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL ALSO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST, EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. IN STARK
CONTRAST, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. SHOULD STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A HANDFUL OF RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EVEN EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN PART DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EVENTUALLY, THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE LOWER 48.
MEANWHILE, IN THE MIDWEST, PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING STORM FORECAST TO LIFT
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER LAKES, WHERE A SWATH OF WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BY LATE THIS MORNING, WINTRY WEATHER FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO OVERTAKE THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND, FOCUSING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN THE ADIRONDACKS,
GREENS, AND WHITES. FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE IN STORE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS WE LOOK TOWARD THE BACK HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. WHILE THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS APPRECIABLE (50-70%), A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES THIS WEEKEND.
ASHERMAN/ORAVEC
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