775
FXCA20 KWBC 201955
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 20 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1950 UTC:
IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE FORECAST REGION, THE ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN IS CHANGING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL AMPLIFY A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THE REGIONS OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN, AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND RECEIVE TRACE TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE TO MOIST PLUMES PROPAGATING ALONG THE
EASTERLY TRADES. EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10-15MM OVER THE
REGION. ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO, BRINGING WITH IT LOW
LEVEL JETS, AND ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL REGIONS AND
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES
ITS FAST PROGRESSION, PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES ALONG THE COASTS OF
VERACRUZ AND INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL FAVOR ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW, WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE THAT WILL SEE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
REGIONS. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS THROUGH
TLAXCALA AND NORTHERN PUEBLA, WHILE TAMAULIPAS, NUEVO LEON,
CENTRAL VERACRUZ, PUEBLA, AND NORTH OAXACA COULD EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA REGION, EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS TO LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SUNDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESSING
SOUTH, IT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAHAMAS, NORTHWEST CUBA, AND
ENTERING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REMAINING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL, ENTERING INTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL FAVOR ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. IN PARTICULAR, PUEBLA AND
NORTHERN OAXACA CAN SEE ENHANCED MOISTURE ENTERING THE REGION,
WHICH WILL HAVE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, FAVORING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND NORTHEAST OAXACA COULD EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS AS WELL, AND THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, PREFRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA BY SUNDAY EVENING, AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES. WITH GREATER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS,
AS THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM OVER FROM THE PETEN REGION INTO THE TRANSVERSAL
DEL NORTE REGION OF GUATEMALA.
TO THE SOUTH, THE REGION IS SEEING MORE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
PROCESSES ASSISTING LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY OVER THE AMAZON REGION. OF INTEREST IN
THE TROPICAL REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS THAT ENHANCED MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS OFF
THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU AND ANOMALOUSLY WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE COURSE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE COSTA
REGION OF ECUADOR, AND INTO THE TUMBES/PIURA REGION OF PERU. OVER
THE THREE DAYS, THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC CHANGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY TO DUE WEST BY SUNDAY, MEANING THAT
DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM
SOUTHWEST PACIFICO REGION OF COLOMBIA INTO WESTERN ECUADOR. ON
SATURDAY, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION, WITH
MAXIMA REACHING 50-100MM, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY
SUNDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA THROUGH THE
GULF OF GUAYAQUIL REGION, WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IN THE
TUMBES/NORTH PIURA REGION OF PERU.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page