044
FXUS02 KWBC 202000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 23 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 27 2026
...HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS/COASTAL HAZARDS COULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..OVERVIEW
A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW COULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (ESPECIALLY EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS) INTO
MONDAY, WITH HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS BEFORE IT PULLS
AWAY. MEANWHILE, AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COINCIDENT WITH A WAVY AND
SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN OREGON
TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MONDAY-TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. DOWNSTREAM, PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, INCLUDING NORTHERN TIER
WINTRY WEATHER.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP
CYCLONE PROBABLY CENTERED SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY HAS SHOWN A TREND FOR THE CYCLONE
TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH THE ECMWF AND AIGFS MOST
PRONOUNCED IN THIS REGARD. THE WPC GUIDANCE MINIMIZED THE USE OF
THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS
A RESULT.
FOR THE WEST COAST, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WITH A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OFF THE
WEST COAST. NEVERTHELESS, THIS HAS NOT RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT
TIMING ON THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
THEREAFTER.
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, MOST NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE IS SEEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR WIDESPREAD. A CONSENSUS OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 00Z EC/EC MEAN, 06Z GFS/GEFS, AND 00Z
CMC/CMC MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY.
THUS, THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE LATEST EC, GFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS WITH INCREASING PROPORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
FROM DAY 6 ONWARD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO START THE PERIOD MONDAY. WHILE
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD, THIS SHOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, AND HIGH WINDS AND
WAVES/COASTAL CONCERNS COULD LINGER. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND
APPALACHIANS UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
PRIMARY LOW INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN, A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OR TWO. THIS
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO SEE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AFFECT SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON, MUCH OF OREGON, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, AND
TRACKING SOUTH A BIT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR CALIFORNIA) AND
A SOMEWHAT LONG DURATION EVENT WILL LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN PLACE FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE DAY 4/MONDAY AND
DAY 5/TUESDAY EROS. SOME AREAS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA VICINITY THAT
JUST RECEIVED MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS WARMER
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, IS LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES IN BEHIND
THE ATLANTIC LOW. MEANWHILE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THESE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WEST AND
REACH THE PLAINS TUESDAY, AND LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BE COMMON, LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S IN TEXAS AND OVER 90F IN PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
KONG/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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