605
FXUS06 KWBC 202014
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH A SECOND
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN
MODEL FORECASTS, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ENHANCED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED
AMPLIFIED TROUGH, WITH PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE
MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS,
SUPPORTED BY CALIBRATED ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOW GREATER
UNCERTAINTY FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED
PRIMARILY OVER WASHINGTON. UNCERTAINTY AMONG TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS LEADS
TO LOWER PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR FAR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. UNDER THE PREDICTED
RIDGE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY
AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF STRONG PACIFIC FLOW. A CONSENSUS OF
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS, INCLUDING THE GEFS CALIBRATED AND
UNCALIBRATED PRECIPITATION, SUPPORT FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, EXCLUDING
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND A TROUGH PERSIST OVER MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH REDUCED AMPLITUDE
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MODEL FORECASTS. AVERAGE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE
CANADIAN BORDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH
IN EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PERSISTENT TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND PARTS
OF NEW ENGLAND, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT DUE TO
THE IMPACTS OF PREDICTED TROUGHING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PREDICTED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EASTERN
INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF PREDICTED TROUGHING
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. FOR THE CONUS, BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE WEST IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN OREGON, THE GREAT BASIN, AND ARIZONA, AS
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST AND EXPAND NORTHWARD IN MODEL
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM WASHINGTON TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION,
INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUPPORTED
BY ALL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110219 - 20180301 - 20090305 - 20110224 - 20190215
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110220 - 20180301 - 20090305 - 20190214 - 20210130
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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