711
FXUS02 KWBC 210732
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 24 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 28 2026
..OVERVIEW
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COINCIDENT WITH A WAVY AND SLOW-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY, WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD GET RENEWED IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATER
WEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S., LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THERE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DOWNSTREAM, CLIPPER
SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO MIDWEEK, AND
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, INCLUDING NORTHERN TIER WINTRY WEATHER.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD TUESDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT IN A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN. THE
MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS WITH SHORTWAVES THAT TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND MAY DIG TO BROADEN TROUGHING IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. IN ADDITION TO THE EAST. FOR EXAMPLE, GFS RUNS ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.
THIS MEANS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY IS SLOWER IN THE GFS WHILE OTHER
DYNAMICAL/AI MODELS HAVE IT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THESE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE GENERALLY WITHIN REASON FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE, BUT
DO CAUSE DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER LIKE FRONTAL TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION. UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BROADEN EVEN FURTHER
LATE WEEK, AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
THUS THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL MODEL BLEND EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, WITH LESSENING PROPORTIONS OF THE GFS DUE TO ITS
SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES. GRADUALLY INCREASED THE PROPORTION OF
ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSED, WITH MEANS REACHING HALF
THE BLEND BY DAY 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE 95TH PERCENTILE. A
MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE THERE FOR THE DAY 4/TUESDAY ERO FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS. SOME AREAS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA VICINITY THAT
JUST RECEIVED MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW COULD SEE RAIN WITH THIS WARMER
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, IS LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATER WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM, THE MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS CONCERNS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE WEATHER A
POTENTIAL THREAT.
FARTHER EAST, A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SNOW
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE LIGHTER
SNOW IS FORECAST FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENERGIES ALOFT COMBINING WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO INTERIOR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
FRONT CLEARING THE COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD LESSEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY FRIDAY, THOUGH SOME WESTERLY FLOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO TUESDAY UNDER A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AFTER A COOL
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FLORIDA. MEANWHILE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 80S IN TEXAS AT TIMES AND OVER 90F
IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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