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FOUS30 KWBC 211937
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SAT FEB 21 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
..16Z OUTLOOK UPDATE
RAIN RATES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA PEAKED AT AROUND 1.5
INCH/HR AS TRAINING CONVECTION MATERIALIZED NEAR CLANTON, AL
(NORTH OF MONTGOMERY) THIS MORNING. THOSE RAIN RATES HAVE SINCE
DECREASED, BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO AN INITIATING SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF TRAINING CONVECTION AT TIMES, WITH
LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY, MITIGATING ANY LARGER SCALE
CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, THOUGH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
(PERHAPS URBAN AREAS OR LOCAL LOW SPOTS) COULD EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE OUTLOOK TO ADDRESS
THIS THREAT, WITH PEAK RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AL/FL BORDER REGION THROUGH SUNSET.
COOK
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 23 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
WEGMAN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON FEB 23 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 24 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (A.R.) OF MOISTURE DIRECTLY OUT OF THE
TROPICS WILL TAKE AIM AT MUCH OF THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY. A PAIR
OF LOWS WILL HELP DIRECT THAT RAINFALL FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N AND
AIM IT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WESTERN
OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. WHILE THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL BE THERE, THE LOWS OFF THE COAST WILL BE RATHER
WEAK AND GENERALLY MEANDERING. THUS, WHILE RAINFALL RATES MAY
EXCEED 1/2 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES, TOTALS ARE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MORE THAN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SINCE UPSLOPE AND FORCING WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LACKING. THE INHERITED MARGINAL RISK IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED, OTHER THAN REMOVING A PORTION OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
WHERE SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION-TYPE. THE
A.R. SHOULD VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH DOWN THE COAST, SO THE FLOODING
THREAT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE WITH TIME INTO WASHINGTON,
WHILE INCREASING INTO CALIFORNIA.
WEGMAN
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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