927
FXUS02 KWBC 222000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 25 2026 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK. A CLIPPER WILL
THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIALS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THURSDAY AND WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE MODEL SPREAD
RELATED TO THE CLIPPER EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES MIDWEEK HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY, THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS TREND HAS
SLIGHTLY NARROWED THE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
MID- SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON WINTRY WEATHER PROSPECTS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BAND OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE
NOT YET CLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE AI MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE CMC REMAINS THE EXCEPTION WITH A
MUCH LESS DEVELOPED FRONTAL WAVE.
PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM, MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SPEED UP A CLIPPER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LIKELY RECEIVING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
WAVE, AN OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN THE WESTERN U.S., MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SUBTLE/GRADUAL
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND SPREADING NORTH TOWARD PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON DAYS 4 & 5.
THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A GENERAL MODEL BLEND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, WITH INCREASING PROPORTIONS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSED, REACHING 75% BY DAY 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
MODEST PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING NORTHERN TIER SNOW, IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY COULD REACH THROUGH
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUS RAIN AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS, WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
LIKELY 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. A MARGINAL RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA ON THE DAY 5/THURSDAY ERO. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEUTRAL THERE (DRIER FARTHER WEST AND
FARTHER SOUTH), BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH, WINTRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH SNOW TO THE
NORTH AND A BAND OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW TRACK.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/FLORIDA. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SOME RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD LESSEN INTO LATE WEEK, BUT REMAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM, THE MEAN
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS CONCERNS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER A POTENTIAL THREAT.
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOSTLY BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE MID TO LATE WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 80S IN TEXAS AT
TIMES AND OVER 90F IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ASIDE FROM A
CHILLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA, THE EAST
SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, AN OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA REMAINS IN STORE,
WHICH WILL SPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KONG/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page