788
FXUS02 KWBC 230736
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 26 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2026
..OVERVIEW
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
TO START THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE EAST, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. BY THE WEEKEND,
ADDITIONAL ENERGIES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER, BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAN EXPECT RIDGING
ALOFT THAT BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE TROUGH AND
HOW THOSE AFFECT SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO GENERALLY TRACK
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST OR WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY THE MOST
INLAND WITH THIS LOW TRACK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION FARTHER INLAND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS
COMPARED TO THE CMC RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE SUPPRESSED. HOWEVER,
THE 00Z RUNS HAVE BUCKED THIS TREND, WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE
SUPPRESSED AND THE 00Z CMC SHOWING A NORTHWEST TREND. GENERALLY
THIS BRINGS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CLOSER TOGETHER. DESPITE THE
GFS TREND, THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HAS TRENDED MORE INLAND. MEANWHILE THE
00Z EC-AIFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER TO TRACK THE LOW NORTHEAST,
AFTER BEING PRETTY STABLE ON TIMING AND TRACK IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
CLEARLY OVERALL THE LOW TRACK IS STILL IN FLUX AND TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. THE WPC FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE 18Z AIFS AND
GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LOW TRACK THAT WERE
AVAILABLE AT THE START OF THE SHIFT. DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE EASTERN SURFACE LOW, UTILIZED MORE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE
MODEL BLEND FOR 500MB HEIGHTS/SURFACE PRESSURES THAN TYPICAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES, A BLEND OF MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUFFICES TO DEPICT THE PATTERN, DESPITE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECT FRONTAL POSITIONS. THE TIMING OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LOW COMING TOWARD CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS
FORTUNATELY SHOWN DECREASING SPREAD IN THE 00Z MODELS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS CYCLE (PRIMARILY THE 12Z CMC WAS A SLOW OUTLIER).
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY COULD REACH
THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS LIKELY 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. A MARGINAL
RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA ON THE DAY 4/THURSDAY ERO.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEUTRAL THERE (DRIER FARTHER
WEST AND FARTHER SOUTH), BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING. MEANWHILE FARTHER
NORTH, WINTRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH
SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND A BAND OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN IN THE TRANSITION ZONE, BUT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW TRACK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, WHERE RAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT STALLING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK, AND PERHAPS INCREASING IN SCOPE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE WEST, MODEST
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK. DOWNSTREAM, THE MEAN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS CONCERNS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER A POTENTIAL
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOSTLY BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE INTO LATE WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH SPREADS HIGHS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH
AS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT CARRYING
AN AIRMASS FROM ALASKA AND VICINITY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND LOWS BELOW 0F ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THOUGH, AND HIGHS REACHING THE 90S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST COULD SET RECORDS. IN THE EAST, PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST WITH CHILLIER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT MONDAY.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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