039
FXUS02 KWBC 231921
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 26 2026 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2026
..OVERVIEW
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHILE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO START THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EAST, BRINGING
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS
TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
IN THE NORTHEAST. BY THE WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES. UNDER THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORDS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST AND INCREASING RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR
NOTE IS A SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO GENERALLY TRACK ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST OR WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE TIMING OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS/INTO CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT. THE 12Z ECMWF MADE STRIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY TO START TO CONVERGE WITH OTHER
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THIS COMING SUNDAY, THOUGH ITS SHORTWAVE
PROGRESS STILL LAGS OTHER GUIDANCE.
THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS, PRESSURES, FRONTS USED A COMPROMISE OF THE
12Z CANADIAN, UKMET, GFS, AND ECMWF EARLY ON BEFORE INCORPORATING
SOME OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. THE AFTERNOON PREFERENCE FITS IN WELL WITH
MORNING AND OVERNIGHT THINKING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE 13Z NBM TO
REMAIN A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR OTHER GRIDS. HOWEVER, IT
NEEDED HELP WITH LIGHTER QPF IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES, AND SOME MAGNIFICATION OF THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE
WEST AND EAST. ITS WINDS ALSO REQUIRED SOME MAGNIFICATION,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY COULD REACH
THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THUS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS LIKELY 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. A MARGINAL
RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS AREA ON THE DAY 4/THURSDAY ERO, THOUGH
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SHIFT.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEUTRAL THERE (DRIER FARTHER
WEST AND FARTHER SOUTH), BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
RAIN COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET ADVERTISE A 2-4" RAIN EVENT FOR THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE REGION IS
IN THE MIDST OF DRY SEASON/DROUGHT SO THIS RAINFALL IS MORE WELCOME
THAN NOT, SO IT WAS FELT (AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE TBW/RUSKIN
FL AND MLB/MELBOURNE FL FORECAST OFFICES) THAT ANY RISK AREA COULD
BE HELD OFF UNTIL A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL EMERGES.
MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH, WINTRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST, WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND A BAND
OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRANSITION ZONE, BUT THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOW TRACK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA, WHERE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT STALLING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. LATE WEEK, AND PERHAPS INCREASING IN SCOPE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. IN THE WEST, MODEST
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK. DOWNSTREAM, THE MEAN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS CONCERNS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER A POTENTIAL
THREAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOSTLY BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE INTO LATE WEEK DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH SPREADS HIGHS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH
AS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT CARRYING
AN AIRMASS FROM ALASKA AND VICINITY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND LOWS BELOW 0F ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER THOUGH, AND HIGHS REACHING THE 90S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST COULD SET RECORDS. IN THE EAST, PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST WITH CHILLIER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ROTH/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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