913
FXCA20 KWBC 231930
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1930 UTC:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS COASTAL AND WESTERN ECUADOR IS EXPECTED TO REACH 100-150
MM, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 200 MM POSSIBLE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS. WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL ALSO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN ECUADOR, WHILE
SIGNIFICANT TOTALS EXTEND INTO NORTHWESTERN PERU. ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OBSERVED AS A COLD
FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY THEN WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AS IT WEAKENS.
TODAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATES ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA,
ECUADOR, AND NORTHWESTERN PERU. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0-2.2 INCHES, COMBINED WITH
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DAILY MAXIMA
OF 40-80 MM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF ECUADOR, WITH 35-75 MM
ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE ANDES. CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE ACTIVE CONVECTION, WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60 MM UNDER A
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA, WILL CAUSE MOISTURE POOLING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN
THESE AREAS, MAXIMA OF 40-80 MM ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN.
SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO WILL OBSERVE LIGHTER BUT STILL ORGANIZED RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ENHANCED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS
ECUADOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
PERU, WHERE MAXIMA OF 30-60 MM ARE FORECAST. WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA MAY OBSERVE 25-60 MM IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALONG THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA, RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20-45 MM AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MODIFY AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE PERSISTS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, RAINFALL INTENSITY GRADUALLY DECREASES
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA, THOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES. WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT,
INCLUDING NORTHERN PERU AND PARTS OF COLOMBIA, CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45 MM. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL WILL OBSERVE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS IN SCATTERED ACTIVITY, WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MM. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,
ACCUMULATIONS TREND LOWER, GENERALLY BELOW 15-25 MM, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HISPANIOLA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 45 MM. BY THIS TIME, THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BEFORE WEAKENING WEST OF CUBA.
ALOFT, A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MAINTAINS GENERALLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE TROUGH DEEPENS NORTHEAST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY, WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INDUCES A TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN RESULTS IN MODESTLY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS, PERSISTENT 20-30 KT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PAPAGAYO, TEHUANTEPEC, PANAMA, AND CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JETS
CONTINUES, SUPPORTING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL PACIFIC
INFLOW INTO ECUADOR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AT 850 HPA, A 700
HPA TROUGH AND ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ECUADORIAN COAST AND
ADJACENT ANDES.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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