010
FOUS11 KWBC 231937
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 24 2026 - 00Z FRI FEB 27 2026
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, THROUGH NORTHEAST
DAYS 1-2...
*** MATURE NOR'EASTER SHIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
COAST TO NOVA SCOTIA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY ***
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC HAS FALLEN TO AROUND
968MB, LOCATED 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. HEAVY SNOWFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS DOWN INTO RHODE ISLAND
WHERE 24+" HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
DEFORMATION THAT HAS SAT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SNOWFALL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM DOWNEAST ME THROUGH
EASTERN MASS AND RI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE FINALLY
CUTTING OFF AS THE OCCLUDED LOW SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST. PROBS FOR
>4" AFTER 12Z TUESDAY ARE UNLIKELY (<15%) WITH THE ONLY VIABLE
CHANCE OVER DOWNEAST ME. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL BE THE LAST UPDATE
FOR OUR POWERFUL NOR'EASTER.
..CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-3...
SHEARED LOW/ZONALLY-ORIENTED TROUGH DIRECTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
(AR) INTO OR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHUNTING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
CA TONIGHT/TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH ALLOWS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
SETUP TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 2500FT AT
SNOQUALMIE PASS WA AND TO AROUND 4000FT IN NORTHWEST MT WHILE
RISING ABOVE 7000/8000FT IN THE CORE OF THE AR IN OR. DAY 1 SNOW
PROBS FOR >6" ARE 50% AT PASS LEVEL IN THE WA CASCADES AND FOR THE
RANGES OF WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID.
THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AR THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGS HEAVY PRECIP
TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CA AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH CA SNOW LEVELS
OVER 9000FT WITH NO SNOW IMPACTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE CLOSER TO 7000FT
IN WESTERN WY AND CENTRAL ID WHERE DAY 2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" SNOW
PROBS ARE 60-90%. EXCEPTIONAL MOISTURE IS DIRECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH DAY 2 SNOW PROBS FOR >24" IS BETWEEN
50-80% IN THE TETONS AND MULTI-DAY TOTALS LIKELY TO EXCEED 3FT.
THE SNOW FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH DOWN THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN CO
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT'S TRANSIENT IN A POWERFUL WESTERLY JET. DAY 3
SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 30-60% IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CO RANGES,
WESTERN WY, AROUND GLACIER NP, AND IN THE HIGHER WA CASCADES.
..GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
DAYS 2/3...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SHIFT ESE FROM NORTHERN MN THROUGH MI ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING NEW
ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE INTO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF DGZ AVAILABLE FOR
SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODERATE SNOW RATES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
ENHANCEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE DAY 2 SNOW
PROBS FOR >6" ARE 50-80%. BRIEF LES TRAILS THE CLIPPER TUESDAY
NIGHT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. DAY 2 SNOW PROBS FOR >6" ARE 50-70% IN THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NOW UP OVER 50% IN THE TUG HILL WITH A MAX OF 80%
SITUATED DUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE TUG HILL BETWEEN ADAMS
CENTER AND PULASKI FOR DAY 2.5. LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR >6"
(10-30%) OFF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE HILLS IN SOUTHWEST NY STATE, BUT
>4" PROBS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO UNIFORMITY OF A GENERAL 4-8"
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE FOR D2-2.5.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
DAY 3...
THE NEXT CLIPPER CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE
FARTHEST NORTH/STRONGEST WITH THIS CLIPPER PRODUCING A SWATH OF
3-6" ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO IA ON D3. OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS LESS
BULLISH, SO STAY TUNED ON THE POTENTIAL WITH IT WHICH MAY INCLUDE
BOTH A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW.
JACKSON/KLEEBAUER
...WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT
KEY MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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