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FXUS06 KWBC 232022
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTEND
FROM MAINLAND ALASKA ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. A RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS). A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WEAKENING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE REGION. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF TRANSIENT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AVERAGE.
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH, WITH PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, UNDER PRIMARILY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
THE NORTHEAST, AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREA OF SLIGHTLY
FAVORED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED RELATIVE TO THE AUTO FORECAST, DUE
TO DIFFERENCES AMONG TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR FAR EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON, OREGON,
AND NORTHERN NEVADA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND MOST TOOLS. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL
TOOLS AND THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
NEAR NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE MODEL TOOLS
ARE INCONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII,
EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN,
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH REDUCED
AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MODEL FORECASTS. IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD AVERAGE, POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH FALLING 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PERSISTENT TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND
RELATED TO PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL SNOW COVER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
TOOLS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PREDICTED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EASTERN
INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF
PREDICTED TROUGHING AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. FOR
THE CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF CALIFORNIA,
SOUTHERN OREGON, AND WESTERN NEVADA, WHERE THERE IS CONSISTENCY AMONG DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. INCONSISTENCIES AMONG DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF FAVORED NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD TO A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL CONUS
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
PREDICTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190213 - 19940217 - 20180302 - 20110222 - 20070227
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110218 - 20180301 - 20110223 - 19940217 - 20190213
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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