757
FXUS02 KWBC 240755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 27 2026 - 12Z TUE MAR 03 2026
..OVERVIEW
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHILE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO START THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER, BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES. UNDER THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S POTENTIALLY
BREAKING RECORDS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY OVERRUN THIS COLDER AIRMASS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BRINING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH QUICK ZONAL FLOW AND A
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION FEATURES AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD,
THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A MULTI MODEL
BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE TO CAPTURE A MIDDLE GROUND OUTCOME, BUT THERE
IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES
OF THE NBM...HIGHLIGHTING THE TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS CA. MODEL DIFFERENCES
SEEM TO RELATE TO BOTH HOW QUICKLY THE NORTHEAST TROUGH EXITS, AND
HOW MUCH ENERGY CUTS OFF WITHIN THE CA UPPER LOW VS GETS EJECTED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WITH THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH THE
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WINTRY PRECIPITATION RISK FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IF ANY
APPRECIABLE PACIFIC ENERGY IS ABLE TO EJECT EASTWARD. THERE HAVE
BEEN LARGE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN THESE DETAILS LOWERING
CONFIDENCE. THE 00Z EC AND GFS ARE ACTUALLY NOW IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT, BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
THIS AGREEMENT COULD JUST BE A MATTER OF LUCK FOR THIS CYCLE AND ODDS
ARE WE CONTINUE TO SEE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE COMING DAYS. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT RECENT AIFS RUNS HOLD BACK MOST OF THE
ENERGY RESULTING IN LESS OF A OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION THREAT THAN
WHAT THE GFS AND EC SHOW. NOT NECESSARILY SAYING THIS SOLUTION
WILL BE RIGHT, JUST NOTING IT AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS WITH THESE DETAILS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, WHICH SHOULD
ACT TO BOTH ENHANCE FORCING/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOW THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH 1-2" COMMON, AND MORE
LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE. IT TAKES QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
AND HIGH RATES TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER FL, AND SO WE
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
A WEAK CLIPPER ON THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHWARD DROPPING ARCTIC HIGH
WILL LIKELY BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT, MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A BIT HIGHER QPF WITH THIS FEATURE, AND WE DID NEED TO
ADJUST THE NBM UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERRUNNING WINTER PRECIPITATION FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE OVERALL
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE MORE ENERGY THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE WEST COAST
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THE PRECIPITATION RISK.
IF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDS STRONGER AND LESS PACIFIC
ENERGY/MOISTURE MAKES IT EAST THEN WE WOULD SEE A LESS IMPACTFUL
PRECIPITATION RISK. TOO MUCH MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY TO KNOW THESE DETAILS...BUT A THREAT OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD EXIST ANYWHERE FROM THE THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
EXACTLY WHERE THESE PTYPES OCCUR, AND ALSO THE MAGNITUDE OF TOTALS,
REMAINS UNCLEAR.
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WHICH SPREADS HIGHS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH
AS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT
CARRYING AN AIRMASS FROM ALASKA AND VICINITY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT
HIGHS AND LOWS BELOW 0F ARE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND HIGHS REACHING
THE 90S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD SET RECORDS. IN THE EAST,
PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES BY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CHENARD
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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