452
FXCA20 KWBC 241921
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1920 UTC:
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND LINGERING FRONTAL INFLUENCES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE RAINFALL
INTENSITY IS GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, ISOLATED AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OBSERVE LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS.
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, CUMULATIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ECUADOR, SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA, NORTHERN PERU, AND CENTRAL BRAZIL
MAY EXCEED 50 MM IN ISOLATED AREAS. HOWEVER, THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TODAY, ONE-DAY RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 25-70 MM ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF ECUADOR, NORTHERN PERU, AS WELL AS WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ISOLATED
MAXIMA UP TO 60 MM ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLOMBIA,
NORTHEASTERN ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
ONLY VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30 MM. OVERALL, EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL
FEATURE FEWER AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED AS A WARM
FRONT TODAY, BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA
AND MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE WARM FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BUT REMAINS BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BY THURSDAY EVENING, IT
BECOMES A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS,
LEAVING BEHIND A SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN,
CENTRAL AMERICA, AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA,
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR PANAMA,
COLOMBIA, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AMAZON BASIN IN PERU AND
BRAZIL. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REGION, THESE VALUES REPRESENT
APPROXIMATELY 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
HOWEVER, OVER PANAMA, COLOMBIA, AND THE AMAZON BASIN, SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE
BEING RELATIVELY HIGH IN ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDE.
ADDITIONALLY, A SAHARAN AIR LAYER INTRUSION IS PROGRESSING INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECAST TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SOME FRAGMENTATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE FIELDS. DESPITE THIS,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS, AND INTO THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHILE A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS BASE NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING LOCALLY STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA, THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A NARROW
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
ATLANTIC TROUGH. WITH INCREASING CONFLUENCE, WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH
NEAR 90 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 100 KNOTS FARTHER NORTH OVER CUBA AND JUST NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUPPORT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE ATLANTIC TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST, THE UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE
NORTHWARD AS WELL, MAINTAINING SUPPORT FOR THE BOUNDARY AS IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
AT MID LEVELS, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, MOSTLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS, THOUGH THE FLOW REMAINS REASONABLY ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN AT UPPER LEVELS. THE ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
REFLECTED AT MID LEVELS AS WELL, THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 35 KNOTS.
AT LOW LEVELS, THE FLOW IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GULF AND ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN MAINTAINS THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THE
PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC JETS. ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A BRIEF
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS NOTED NEAR
700 HPA TODAY, WHILE 850 HPA FLOW REMAINS WEAKER. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPS WEST OF ECUADOR AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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