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FXUS06 KWBC 242002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 06 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TRANSITION TO PROGRESSIVE,
LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE BEGINNING OF
MARCH. AS THE POLAR JET RETREATS NORTHWARD TO CANADA, THESE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS HAVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LOWER 48
STATES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND CANADA,
RESPECTIVELY, DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. WESTERLY FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEST, GREAT PLAINS, AND
SOUTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FROM DAYS 6-8 (MAR 2-4) DUE TO AN AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. GIVEN THE MODEL TREND AND UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS MAINE WHERE 5-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. A
TWO-CATEGORY CHANGE FROM BELOW TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS NECESSARY FOR
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, AND WISCONSIN DUE TO ANOMALOUS COLD TIMING
OFF BY DAY 6.
DESPITE THE PREDICTED LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW, THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION TOOLS LEAN
ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS
FAVORED WETNESS IS INITIALLY RELATED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN DUE TO A LONGWAVE 500-HPA TROUGH AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE TWO COMBINED FACTORS LEAD TO THE ECENS
(WETTEST MODEL SOLUTION) DEPICTING A LARGE SWATH OF MORE THAN ONE INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDWEST.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH LOWER, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (33-40 PERCENT). TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREDICTED STORM TRACK, ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, MANY OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS HAVE A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WEST COAST AND ALSO FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EAST TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. THE LARGEST
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH THIS COLD PATTERN, NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER, INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
(EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AND
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 10 2026
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FEATURE A PAIR OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN
THESE MID-LEVEL RIDGES, AN AMPLIFYING 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
ROCKIES. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING WEEK-2. AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES LATER
IN WEEK-2, 500-HPA HEIGHTS BECOME CLOSER TO OR EVEN BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN EAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MARCH 4 TO 10. THIS LARGE COVERAGE WITH ENHANCED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS DUE TO WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,
EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND THEN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2. BASED ON
ANOMALOUS COLD THROUGH DAY 9 (MARCH 5), NEAR NORMAL OR ONLY A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. THE ECENS AND
GEFS AGREE THAT ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVERSPREADS ALL OF THE EAST COAST BY THE
SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.
THE AMPLIFYING 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE WEST ALONG WITH RETURN GULF INFLOW FAVOR
A WET PATTERN FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPALACHIANS. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE MOST ENHANCED FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. SINCE THE STORM TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS, NEAR NORMAL OR A SLIGHT LEAN
TOWARDS THE DRY SIDE IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THE COVERAGE WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD LATER IN WEEK-2. HOWEVER,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, WESTERN
NEVADA, AND CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE NEARBY MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
COAST.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
RETROGRADES OVER ALASKA WHICH RESULTS IN THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT) BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A MODERATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO
SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR KAUAI WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN OFFSET BY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHEAST AND THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090223 - 20090301 - 19940217 - 19890308 - 19890227
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090225 - 20090302 - 20110218 - 20110223 - 20180302
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A B
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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