214
FOUS11 KWBC 251922
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
VALID 00Z THU FEB 26 2026 - 00Z SUN MAR 01 2026
..NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
DAY 1...
A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL TRAIL A POTENT COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE,
AND GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES FROM
UPSTATE NY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL, BRIEFLY
HEAVY SNOW RATES AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY SNOW SQUALLS COULD
CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE EXTREMELY RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS.
ALONG THIS FRONT, A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, AND MAYBE CLIPPING
FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER
SOUTH, THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY, BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AS REFLECTED BY WPC PROBABILITIES FOR 1" LESS THAN
10% EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA.
..CASCADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DAYS 1-3...
A SERIES OF WAVES EMANATING FROM AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL QUICKLY FLATTEN RIDGING OVER THE
WEST COAST AND DIRECT FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOISTURE
ANOMALIES ARE MODEST AT BEST, THE FAST FLOW INTERACTING WITH
TERRAIN AND SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000FT WILL SUPPORT SNOW FROM THE
NORTHERN WA CASCADES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTHWESTERN MT. WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR >6" REMAIN HIGH (>70%) THROUGH EARLY DAY 3 BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.
A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BEFORE SCOOTING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE, A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL DESCEND SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
ENHANCE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER MID/UPPER HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH AND
LOWER HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT A STRONG 150 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MT AND THE DAKOTAS. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET COUPLED
WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BANDED SNOWFALL.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL >2" ARE MODERATE (40-70%) FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MT, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (10-40%) FOR >4".
FARTHER EAST, PROBABILITIES FOR >2" ARE LOW (20-40%) FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD, WITH PROBABILITIES OF >4" AT LESS
THAN 10%.
LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST DAYS 1-3.
WEISS/MILLER
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