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FXUS06 KWBC 252002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 07 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE
PATTERN REAMPLIFIES BY THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A PAIR OF STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGES ARE WELL PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE MID-LEVEL RIDGES, A 500-HPA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES FROM DAYS 8-10 (MARCH 5-7). THERE ARE MINOR
DIFFERENCES ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE GEFS (STRONGEST)
CMCE (WEAKEST). THE ECENS WAS A COMPROMISE AND THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION IN
CREATING THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND.
AT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ANOMALOUS COLD IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND BUT
WEAKER SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NEW ENGLAND AROUND DAY 8 (MARCH
5). DUE TO A COUPLE OF PERIODS WITH ANOMALOUS COLD, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT EVEN THIS REGION FLIPS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY DAY 10
(MARCH 7) IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING, A TWO-CATEGORY
CHANGE FROM BELOW TO ABOVE? WAS NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR EARLY MARCH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS
MULTIPLE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION ONCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES.
AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
DURING EARLY MARCH DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM AND ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE GEFS INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES INCREASE TO MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE GEFS AND
ECENS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH AN AXIS OF 5-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ALONG THIS PREDICTED
AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, BUT NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MORE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, RESPECTIVELY. THE NEARBY
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWESTERN OREGON, CALIFORNIA, WESTERN NEVADA, AND PARTS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.
THIS MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. THE LARGEST
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. CONSISTENT WITH THIS COLD PATTERN, NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
HOWEVER, PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW RESULT IN ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
(EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK
AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN AND CONTINUED EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 11 2026
THE ECENS REMAINS THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION WITH ITS MODERATELY STRONG
500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES DURING WEEK-2, WHILE THE LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE CMCE SEEMS TO BE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE MODEL TREND
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR EARLY MARCH IS
EXPECTED WITH A 500-HPA TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGES
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH/RIDGE
LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM WEST-TO-EAST AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SUPPORT
LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (MORE THAN 70 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. ON MARCH 5 AND 6, A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TO
LINGERING COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, WITH A
FLIP TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO OCCUR BY DAY 10 (MARCH 7) ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST, THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK HAS ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES EVEN FOR THIS REGION. THESE PROBABILITIES DECREASE CLOSER TO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, PROBABILITIES ARE
LOWER FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS THAN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT, DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THIS WOULD BE QUITE A PATTERN CHANGE AS MANY OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DURING THE PAST 30 TO 90 DAYS. THIS
CHANGE TOWARDS A MUCH WETTER REGIME IS RELATED TO THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED PROLONGED STRETCH OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE GEFS IS NOW THE WETTEST MODEL
SOLUTION WITH A VERY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM CHICAGO SOUTH TO LITTLE ROCK AND SHREVEPORT FROM MARCH 5 TO 11.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DECREASE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST AND
ALSO WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THESE AREAS ARE PREDICTED TO BE AWAY
FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK. ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA, WESTERN NEVADA,
AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW AT TIMES ELEVATES THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WEST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO
SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN AND IMPROVED CONFIDENCE
ON A TRANSITION TOWARDS A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090223 - 19890227 - 20090301 - 19890309 - 19940216
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090224 - 20090302 - 19890226 - 20110223 - 19940216
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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