629
FXUS02 KWBC 260808
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 01 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2026
..OVERVIEW
INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP THE SOUTHWEST,
LEADING TO POSSIBLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY OVERRUN THIS COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE
MID- MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEN A
PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AS PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY AGREEABLE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN,
WITH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE IS
COMING IN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW
REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY MONDAY, AFTER SOME SPREAD IN
THE 12Z GUIDANCE (INCLUDING A FASTER 12Z CMC AND SLOWER 12Z GFS).
MEANWHILE IN THE EAST, THERE ARE SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN AT
LEAST ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH, OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY, EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE DIGGING THIS
SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH IN TURN ALLOWED FOR MORE QPF TO
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY. RECENT CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
FOR QPF TO BE MORE LIMITED IN THE NORTHEAST AND FOCUS MORE IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, AND TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION COMPARED TO
01Z NBM QPF.
THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTING OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND WILL RELATE
TO HOW MUCH/WHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPS INTO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE MAIN OUTLIER SEEMED TO BE THE 12Z CMC, BUT
THE NEWER 00Z RUN LOOKS MORE REASONABLY CLOSE TO OTHER GUIDANCE. A
BLEND OF MODELS FAVORING THE GFS, ECMWF, AND AIFS WORKED WELL EARLY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING PROPORTIONS OF
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HALF THE BLEND LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MITIGATE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER STORM, IT DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT
PLOWABLE SNOW AND SOME ICE WILL OCCUR. SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND
MID-ATLANTIC. JUST TO THE SOUTH, THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR A
SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET
RENEWED ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A WARMER
SYSTEM WITH MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN THE BROADER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THIS WILL TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL CONCERNS
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH THIS PATTERN.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH. SNOW
MAY LINGER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THEN
BY MIDWEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
WARMER THAN AVERAGE ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS
RESULTS IN 90S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS, WITH 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH COULD BREAK DAILY
RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THE TROUGHS ALOFT COME THROUGH. MEANWHILE TO
THE NORTH, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. SUNDAY TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WELL BELOW 0F ARE LIKELY, WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, AND UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PRODUCE WARMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS
INTO THE WORKWEEK, GRADUALLY TRACKING EASTWARD.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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