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FXCA20 KWBC 261931
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1930 UTC:
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO CUBA, GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS,
A HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT
IS SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
BROAD RIDGE ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, RESULTING IN A NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET WITH WINDS NEAR 100 KT EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS INTO CUBA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY EVENING, JET CORE WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 70-80 KT AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
AT MID-LEVELS, A TROUGH IS ALSO DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UNITED
STATES INTO THE GULF AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, BECOMING
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. BY FRIDAY EVENING ITS
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO WESTERN CUBA, AND BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WEAKENS GRADUALLY AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD, WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, WITH DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MOST SUSTAINED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME PERSISTS OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA, ECUADOR,
AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA, SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THERE.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND DOMINATES THE REGIONAL
WIND FLOW. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD, WHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET AND
PAPAGAYO JET REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE THE PANAMA
JET WEAKENS AFTER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, THE BAHAMAS, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA RANGE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.8 INCHES, WITH
ANOMALIES AROUND 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ACROSS
PANAMA AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHES
UP TO 2.4 INCHES, THOUGH ANOMALIES THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THE OVERALL MOISTURE
PATTERN SUPPORTS LESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
BASIN, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY STABLE MID
LEVELS IN THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, OVERALL RAINFALL ACTIVITY DECREASES
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF ECUADOR AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
CENTRAL BRAZIL, WHERE DAILY MAXIMA BETWEEN 30 AND 60 MM ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN PERU, MAXIMA GENERALLY RANGES
BETWEEN 15 AND 35 MM. ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL
REMAINS MOSTLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN, EASTERN CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS MAY OBSERVE
10 TO 15 MM. CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MOSTLY UNDER
10 MM.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RAINFALL COVERAGE BECOMES MORE LIMITED
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A LOCALIZED AREA OF CENTRAL BRAZIL
MAY RECEIVE 30 TO 60 MM, BUT ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHERN BRAZIL INTO
NORTHEASTERN PERU AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA, DAILY MAXIMA ARE GENERALLY FORECAST BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MM. A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA MAY
REACH UP TO 35 MM. ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS,
RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS WITH DAILY MAXIMA NEAR 15 TO 25 MM,
WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA MAY OBSERVE EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS.
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RAINFALL INCREASES SLIGHTLY AGAIN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN THE AREA. WESTERN COLOMBIA MAY RECEIVE DAILY MAXIMA UP TO 35
MM, WHILE WESTERN ECUADOR MAY SEE UP TO 45 MM. NORTHEASTERN PERU
AND CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE MAXIMA
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MM. ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS,
RAINFALL REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY
UP TO 10 MM ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, EASTERN PUERTO RICO, AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND UP TO 25 MM ACROSS PARTS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA
IN ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
INCLUDING NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA, ARE EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA NEAR 15 MM, WHILE A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO MAY RECEIVE UP TO 10 MM.
OVERALL, THREE-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA, PARTICULARLY ECUADOR
AND SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR MAY APPROACH 75 TO
100 MM, WHILE COLOMBIA MAY BE MORE IN THE 50 TO 75 MM RANGE.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL REGION, THREE-DAY
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35 MM, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
POCKETS EXCEEDING THAT THRESHOLD IN PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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