666
FXUS02 KWBC 261940
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 01 2026 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2026
..OVERVIEW
INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP THE SOUTHWEST,
LEADING TO POSSIBLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY OVERRUN THIS COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE
MID- MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THEN A
PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, AS PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE EAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
TROUGHING IN THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE LARGE SCALE, BUT TIMING AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL HAVE GREATER IMPLICATIONS FOR OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION, AND EXACT PRECIP TYPES. A GENERAL
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE/THE NBM SERVES AS A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST.
OUT WEST, THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW REACHING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
MONDAY, BUT THE CMC WAS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH IT. THE BETTER
CONSENSUS LIFTS A WEAKER WAVE QUICKER INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS
ALSO RESULTS IN THE CMC BEING SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH INTO THE
WEST AROUND MID- WEEK. A NON-CMC BLEND WORKED WELL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING ENSEMBLE MEAN WEIGHTING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD, OVERALL MAINTAINING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER STORM, IT DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT
PLOWABLE SNOW WILL OCCUR, MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID- ATLANTIC, BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME NORTH/SOUTH VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT AXIS. JUST TO THE
SOUTH, THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACK OF THE
WINTRY WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET
RENEWED ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A WARMER
SYSTEM WITH MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN THE BROADER
UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THIS WILL TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL CONCERNS
FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH THIS PATTERN.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH. SNOW
MAY LINGER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THEN
BY MIDWEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH
WARMER THAN AVERAGE ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS
RESULTS IN 90S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS, WITH 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH COULD BREAK DAILY
RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THE TROUGHS ALOFT COME THROUGH. MEANWHILE TO
THE NORTH, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. SUNDAY TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WELL BELOW 0F ARE LIKELY, WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, AND UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PRODUCE WARMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS
INTO THE WORKWEEK, GRADUALLY TRACKING EASTWARD.
SANTORELLI/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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