413
FXUS06 KWBC 262001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 08 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE PERIOD AVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH A NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. HAWAII IS FORECAST TO BE AT
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80%. THERE ARE REDUCED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE SOME LINGERING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. IN THE WEST, AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO REDUCED
CONFIDENCE. THE FIRST GUESS FORECAST BLEND FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE SHORT-TERM BIAS
CORRECTED, UNCALIBRATED, AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE FAVORS JUST A SLIT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST NEAR THE POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED.
AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
DURING EARLY MARCH DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM AND ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES INCREASE TO MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
REPEATED CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS FAVORED DURING BOTH THE 6-10
DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE INDICATE A SWATH OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERTOPPING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WHERE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA CONSISTENT WITH THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BENEATH THE STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA WITH ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS OF HAWAII
HOWEVER THERE ARE STRONG CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 12 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. A PAIR OF POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND THE
EASTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND MAY PERSIST FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
AMERICA, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST WITH THE ECENS AND
CMCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST A NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE GEFS IS THE OUTLIER INDICATING RISING HEIGHTS IN ALASKA
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN HAWAII, WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
DURING WEEK-2 MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. IS FORECAST TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BENEATH STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. IN THE WEST, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED WITH
TOOLS SOMEWHAT MIXED ON THE PERIOD AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WEST. ABOVE NORMAL IS
AGAIN FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST ADJACENT TO THE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH STRONG
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED. IN HAWAII,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THIS WOULD BE QUITE A PATTERN CHANGE AS MANY OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DURING THE PAST 30 TO 90 DAYS. THIS
CHANGE TOWARDS A MUCH WETTER REGIME IS RELATED TO THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED PROLONGED STRETCH OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH PREDICT MORE THAN 3 INCHES (LOCALIZED 4INCHES) OF
PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2 FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DECREASE CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST AND ALSO WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THESE AREAS ARE
PREDICTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK. ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CALIFORNIA, WESTERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW AT
TIMES ELEVATES THE CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WEST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IN HAWAII,
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES ARE INCREASED SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890227 - 20090223 - 20090228 - 19890309 - 20060225
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090224 - 19890226 - 20090301 - 19890303 - 19940215
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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