829
FXUS02 KWBC 270755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS/TROUGHS SLATED TO DIG
INTO AN UNSETTLED WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEAASTWARD
EJECTIONS OVER AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD WITH FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS OUT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.. MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
A NORTHERN STREAM WILL SPREAD COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S.
NORTHERN TIER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY OVERRUN THIS
COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO
THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS SLATED TO
TRANSITION OVER THE EAST FROM BROAD TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC RIDGING AND SPRINGTIME WARMING LATER
NEXT WEEK AS COLD DAMNED HIGH PRESSURE LOSES SOUTHWARD INFLUENCE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE BULK OF LATEST MODELS, ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO AGAIN OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM-RANGE TIME SCALES. FAVOR A BROAD BLEND
WITH GREATER APPLIED FOCUS TRANSITIONING FROM BEST CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE
COMPATIBLE ENSEMBLE MEANS/EC-AIFS INTO LATER NEXT WEEK IN FLOW WITH
SEEMINGLY ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY OVERALL. THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION IS DESIGNED TO MITIGATE SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM VARIANCES AS
CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL UNCERTAINTY. IT IS IN LINE WITH THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, WPC CONTINUITY AND NEW 00 UTC GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER
STORM, IT SEEMS BROADLY NOTABLE FOR PLOWABLE SNOW TO OCCUR, MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY,
AND INTO POTENTIALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
NORTH/SOUTH VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT AXIS. ALONG AND JUST TO THE
SOUTH, THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACK OF THE WINTRY
WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET
RENEWED ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARMER SYSTEM WITH MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH
SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS THE
FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AND THEN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, THIS WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE
POTENTIAL CONCERNS FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH THIS PATTERN.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH. SNOW
MAY LINGER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THEN
INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MAY SEE RENEWED COOLING AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND EXPANDING COVERAGE WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/TROUGH.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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