094
FXUS02 KWBC 271905
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2026 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A
SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM LOWS/TROUGHS SLATED TO DIG INTO
AN UNSETTLED WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD
EJECTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE/WET PERIOD WITH FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WITHIN A
NORTHERN STREAM WILL SPREAD COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S.
NORTHERN TIER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY OVERRUN THIS
COLDER AIRMASS INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT
TO PORTIONS OF THE MID- MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS/MID- ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER PATTERN IN THE EAST IS
SLATED TO TRANSITION FROM BROAD TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC RIDGING AND SPRINGTIME WARMING LATER
NEXT WEEK AS COLD DAMNED HIGH PRESSURE LOSES SOUTHWARD INFLUENCE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE BULK OF LATEST MODELS, ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO AGAIN OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM-RANGE TIME SCALES. THERE DO REMAIN SOME
IMPORTANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES WHICH IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH.
THE MOST NOTABLE OUTLIER WAS THE 06Z GFS WHICH WAS FASTER WITH THE
FIRST UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
WEEK. IT WAS ALSO FASTER/WEAKER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT DIGS
INTO THE WEST. INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH, THAT SOME OF THE NEW 12Z
GUIDANCE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER, WITH AT LEAST THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY-MID WEEK.
THE WPC FORECAST TODAY FAVORED A GENERAL (NON-GFS) BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. INCREASED WEIGHTING OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATER PERIOD TO MITIGATE THE SMALLER SCALE
DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE LOWER PREDICTABILITY THAT FAR OUT. THIS
OVERALL APPROACH MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE NBM AND THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER STORM, IT SEEMS BROADLY NOTABLE FOR
SOME SNOW TO OCCUR, MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO POTENTIALLY THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT
AXIS/LOCATIONS IMPACTED. ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH, THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO FAVOR A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET
RENEWED ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARMER SYSTEM WITH MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH
SOME WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS THE
FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AND THEN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, THIS WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE
POTENTIAL CONCERNS WITH THIS PATTERN AND A BROAD MARGINAL RISK WAS
ADDED TO THE DAY 5/TUESDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE AND TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG THE SLOW MOVING AND
WEST- EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH. SNOW
MAY LINGER IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. THEN
INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MAY SEE RENEWED COOLING AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND EXPANDING COVERAGE WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/TROUGH.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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