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FXUS06 KWBC 272002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE PERIOD AVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH AMERICA, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST WITH A NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. HAWAII IS FORECAST TO BE AT
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80%. IN THE WEST, AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH LEADS TO REDUCED CONFIDENCE. THE FIRST GUESS
FORECAST BLEND FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE SHORT-TERM BIAS CORRECTED, UNCALIBRATED, AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THEREFORE FAVORS JUST A SLIT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST NEAR THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
(ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS) WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST OVER THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH ZONAL
FLOW INTO THE REGION. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED.
A WET PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING EARLY
MARCH DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANOMALIES INCREASE TO MORE THAN 200% OF NORMAL FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. REPEATED
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS FAVORED DURING BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE INDICATE A SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE OF THE WEST
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARDS. THIS REDUCES BUT DOES NOT ELIMINATE ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON
CONSISTENT WITH THE RIDGE OFFSHORE AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BENEATH THE STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE MAIN ISLANDS OF HAWAII HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH HAVE
SHIFTED EAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2026
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD AND IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR ALL OF WEEK-2. ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA, NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND TOOLS LACK A NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, MEAN HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS SEVEN DAY PERIOD. THIS INTRODUCES A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. IN HAWAII, NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME OF THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT CENTER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.
DURING WEEK-2 MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BENEATH STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. IN THE WEST,
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED WITH TOOLS SOMEWHAT MIXED ON THE PERIOD AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE. THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST. ABOVE NORMAL IS AGAIN FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST
ADJACENT TO THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN
ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND MUCH
OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER
THE STATE. HOWEVER, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
LIKELY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THIS WOULD BE QUITE A PATTERN CHANGE AS MANY OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DRIER-THAN-NORMAL DURING THE PAST 30 TO 90 DAYS. THIS
CHANGE TOWARDS A MUCH WETTER REGIME IS RELATED TO THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED PROLONGED STRETCH OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH PREDICT MORE THAN 3 INCHES (LOCALIZED 4INCHES) OF
PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK-2 FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DECREASE CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST AND ALSO WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THESE AREAS ARE
PREDICTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK. ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF
CALIFORNIA, WESTERN NEVADA, AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW AT
TIMES ELEVATES THE CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA WEST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890228 - 20060225 - 19960218 - 20090228 - 19890308
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890301 - 20090224 - 20090301 - 20060224 - 19890306
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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