689
FXUS02 KWBC 280751
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 03 2026 - 12Z SAT MAR 07 2026
..OVERVIEW
THERE REMAINS A STRONG GUIDANCE SIGNAL SHOWING A SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
STREAM LOWS/TROUGHS SLATED TO DIG INTO AN UNSETTLED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD EJECTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..
THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD WITH FRONTAL
WAVE GENESIS OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES WITHIN A NORTHERN STREAM WILL
TRY TO SPREAD COLD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS COLDER AIRMASS
INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT TO PORTIONS OF
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER PATTERN IN THE EAST IS
SLATED TO TRANSITION FROM BROAD TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AMPLIFIED SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. EXPECT UPPER RIDGING AND
SPRINGTIME WARMING TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATER NEXT
WEEK AS LEAD COLD DAMNED HIGH PRESSURE LOSES SOUTHWARD INFLUENCE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE BULK OF LATEST MODELS, ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO AGAIN OFFER A REASONABLY SIMILAR MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM-RANGE TIME SCALES, ALBEIT WITH A GROWING
TREND TOWARD A WET CENTRAL U.S. PATTERN AS EMERGING MOISTURE
CHANNELS BETWEEN MORE DIGGY/AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING INTO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT WARMTH INCLUDING SOME RECORD VALUES. FORECAST
SPREAD RELATED MAINLY TO SYSTEM TIMING ISSUES HAS INCREASED OVERALL
THROUGH, SO PREDICTABILITY SEEMS LIMITED TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
FAVOR A BROAD BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS/EC-AIFS. THIS BLENDED SOLUTION IS DESIGNED TO
MITIGATE UNRESOLVED SYSTEM VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL
UNCERTAINTY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS,
WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF NEWER 00 UTC GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LEADING ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO
TUESDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER STORM, IT SEEMS BROADLY NOTABLE FOR
SOME SNOW TO OCCUR, MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY REGION, AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS VARIABILITY ON THE
EXACT AXIS/LOCATIONS IMPACTED. ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH, THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR A SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ACCUMULATIONS AND TRACK OF THE WINTRY WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET RENEWED
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
WARMER SYSTEM WITH INCREASINGLY MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH SYSTEM PROGRESSION WITH DOWNSTREAM
SPREAD ONWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST INTO MIDWEEK. AS THE FIRST
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND
THEN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
ETC., THIS WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING
RAIN AND GROWING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL CONCERNS WITH THIS PATTERN AND ELONGATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK AREAS ARE NOW IN PLACE
FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY AND DAY 5/WEDNESDAY GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
AND TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG THE SLOW MOVING/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH/LOW PASSES
THROUGH. THEN INTO MID-LATER NEXT WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE RENEWED COOLING AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EXPANDING COVERAGE WITH APPROACH AND
DIGGING OF AN AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATED UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE WEST, WITH MODEL TRENDS MORE ROBUSTLY DOWN TO SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
TO NORTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AMPLIFIED AND WARMING SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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