420
FXUS02 KWBC 282000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 03 2026 - 12Z SAT MAR 07 2026
..OVERVIEW
THERE REMAINS A STRONG GUIDANCE SIGNAL SHOWING A SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
STREAM LOWS/TROUGHS SLATED TO DIG INTO AN UNSETTLED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD EJECTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..
THIS SETS UP WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD WITH FRONTAL
WAVE GENESIS OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE MIDWEST WHERE THE
MODEL SPREAD IS MAXIMIZED MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRY TO SLIDE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
WILL OVERRUN THIS COLDER AIRMASS INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER PATTERN IN THE EAST IS SLATED
TO TRANSITION FROM BROAD TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO AMPLIFIED
SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. EXPECT UPPER RIDGING AND SPRINGTIME
WARMING TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK AS LEAD
COLD DAMNED HIGH PRESSURE LOSES SOUTHWARD INFLUENCE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MUCH OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD IS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
GFS/GEFS AMPLIFIES A FRONTAL WAVE AND BRINGS IT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH TOO AMPLIFIED COMPARED WITH
THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE AI MODELS ALSO FAVOR A
DELAYED AMPLIFICATION RELATIVE TO THE GFS/GEFS. THUS, THE WPC POP
AND QPF WERE DERIVED BY EXCLUDING THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION WED-THU.
THE DELAYED WAVE AMPLIFICATION WOULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN QPF
THU ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING THE NEXT BOUT OF HIGH QPF LATE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWED BY THE TENDENCY
TO EXPAND BUT WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TREND BY NEXT
WEEKEND RELATIVE TO THE NBM. FOR THE REST OF THE U.S., THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AGREE VERY WELL WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME STATIONARY ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EXITS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, LEADING TO A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE MIDWEST AND EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A COLD HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA INTO UPSTATE NY TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT
AXIS/LOCATIONS IMPACTED, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.
MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO GET RENEWED
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
WARMER SYSTEM WITH INCREASINGLY MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH DOWNSTREAM SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND THEN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ETC., THIS WILL TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN AND GROWING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL
CONCERNS WITH THIS PATTERN AND ELONGATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
MARGINAL RISK AREAS ARE NOW IN PLACE FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY AND DAY
5/WEDNESDAY GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND TRAINING POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE WEST, A ROUND OF MODEST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH/LOW PASSES
THROUGH. THEN INTO MID-LATER NEXT WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE RENEWED COOLING AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EXPANDING COVERAGE WITH APPROACH AND
DIGGING OF AN AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATED UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE WEST, WITH MODEL TRENDS MORE ROBUSTLY DOWN TO SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS
CONTINUATION OF A MOISTURE CHANNEL DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.
TO NORTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK ON THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AMPLIFIED AND WARMING SOUTHEAST U.S./ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE.
KONG/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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